{ "ticker": { "uuid": "214f239b-8d89-46a5-9b69-b264599ad496", "symbol": "MOS", "name": "The Mosaic Company", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 83.78, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.625, "architecture_energy": 17.466, "architecture_maturity": 60.553, "architecture_confidence": 68.103, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.77, "rotation_up": 24.61, "upward_expansion": 17.58, "deceleration": 45.53, "rotation_down": 29.87, "downward_expansion": 56.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.43, 22.246182, 22.474373, 23.210526 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 23.06, "trend_reference": 24.379421, "distance_from_trend": -0.05412, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.926428, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.174259, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.35262, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.178966, "excess_performance": -0.304591, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.05412, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028421, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.174259, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064439, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.213526, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118094, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.178966, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.561957, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45100073, "relative_activity": 1.044941, "balance": 1.561957, "dry_up": 0.892823, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088476, "annualized_volatility": 0.441293, "from_high_reference": -0.359483, "from_low_reference": 0.164941 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.379421, "fair_value_reference": 27.926428, "structural_low": 19.795, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.008775, "positive_rate": 0.393939, "directional_follow_through": 0.606061, "median_excess_return": -0.010849, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.181818, "worst_return": -0.148888, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.078464, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.09006, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.148586, "worst_return": -0.260107, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.140049, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.266783, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.003564, "worst_return": -0.219639, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.72148, "energy": 35.965596, "activity_lines": [ 21.946, 22.158727, 22.574499, 23.457243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.12, "volume": 39156821, "typical_volume": 44565831.2, "trend": 24.461207, "fair_value": 28.02294, "relative_strength": -22.663843, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.98788, "energy": 29.604056, "activity_lines": [ 22.022667, 22.113455, 22.463248, 23.300927 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.06, "volume": 45100073, "typical_volume": 43160410.9, "trend": 24.379421, "fair_value": 27.926428, "relative_strength": -21.35262, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.62497, "energy": 17.465612, "activity_lines": [ 22.43, 22.246182, 22.474373, 23.210526 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }