{ "ticker": { "uuid": "214f52b9-2126-4177-bd8e-be18d19fe63e", "symbol": "002923", "name": "Zhuhai Rundu Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.967, "architecture_energy": 34.569, "architecture_maturity": 84.763, "architecture_confidence": 79.134, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.59, "rotation_up": 27.44, "upward_expansion": 22.31, "deceleration": 46.84, "rotation_down": 31.42, "downward_expansion": 58.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.628667, 10.464182, 10.903238, 11.776559 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.14, "trend_reference": 12.766333, "distance_from_trend": -0.127392, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.69678, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.047601, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.998939, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.225851, "excess_performance": -0.233251, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.127392, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069826, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.047601, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.160682, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.179989, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0347, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.225851, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.273009, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50892368, "relative_activity": 1.029702, "balance": 0.273009, "dry_up": 1.444856, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087902, "annualized_volatility": 0.466575, "from_high_reference": -0.412447, "from_low_reference": 0.196563 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.766333, "fair_value_reference": 11.69678, "structural_low": 9.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.002481, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": 0.007679, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.391152, "worst_return": -0.293004, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.035802, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.020389, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.217885, "worst_return": -0.148148, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.121811, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.115192, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.714125, "worst_return": -0.188506, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 11.75955, "relative_strength": -28.012873, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.661059, "energy": 74.80865, "activity_lines": [ 10.302667, 10.462545, 11.575762, 12.380516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.65, "volume": 132914888, "typical_volume": 48377929.4, "trend": 12.942, "fair_value": 11.743222, "relative_strength": -20.452437, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.408305, "energy": 49.612687, "activity_lines": [ 10.47, 10.416364, 11.377143, 12.227892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.12, "volume": 61325937, "typical_volume": 48379951.35, "trend": 12.863667, "fair_value": 11.725174, "relative_strength": -24.015323, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.167423, "energy": 43.07397, "activity_lines": [ 10.422, 10.320909, 11.151952, 12.045828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.35, "volume": 40511340, "typical_volume": 48241885.55, "trend": 12.8, "fair_value": 11.709035, "relative_strength": -20.51306, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.456361, "energy": 42.414888, "activity_lines": [ 10.428, 10.308182, 10.976667, 11.883656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.14, "volume": 50892368, "typical_volume": 49424377.65, "trend": 12.766333, "fair_value": 11.69678, "relative_strength": -17.998939, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.966729, "energy": 34.568993, "activity_lines": [ 10.628667, 10.464182, 10.903238, 11.776559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }