{ "ticker": { "uuid": "21560678-ad09-46cf-a6ea-4fadb1d2f7d5", "symbol": "L02", "name": "Metis Energy Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 61.725, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.101, "architecture_energy": 26.275, "architecture_maturity": 21.938, "architecture_confidence": 81.602, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.1, "rotation_up": 19.99, "upward_expansion": 2.11, "deceleration": 54.16, "rotation_down": 44.09, "downward_expansion": 68.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.039467, 0.039509, 0.040229, 0.040361 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.039, "trend_reference": 0.040567, "distance_from_trend": -0.03862, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.034391, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.134017, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.838024, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.026316, "excess_performance": -0.128519, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.03862, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004906, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.134017, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068996, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12838, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.331783, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.026316, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.499434, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 925500, "relative_activity": 0.421443, "balance": 0.499434, "dry_up": 0.161792, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059172, "annualized_volatility": 0.302646, "from_high_reference": -0.1875, "from_low_reference": 0.95 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.040567, "fair_value_reference": 0.034391, "structural_low": 0.034, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": -0.015746, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 1.047619, "worst_return": -0.479167, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.14, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.133663, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.84375, "worst_return": -0.541667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.264358, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.193698, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.945946, "worst_return": -0.26, "sufficient": true 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.592593, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130435, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.318182, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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"close": 0.04, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3277850.0, "trend": 0.041067, "fair_value": 0.034968, "relative_strength": -1.781483, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.578135, "energy": 45.076654, "activity_lines": [ 0.039733, 0.0404, 0.040781, 0.040824 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.039, "volume": 627800, "typical_volume": 3131885.0, "trend": 0.040933, "fair_value": 0.034865, "relative_strength": -8.129163, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.354283, "energy": 48.214286, "activity_lines": [ 0.039467, 0.040036, 0.040614, 0.04069 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.039, "volume": 160100, "typical_volume": 3031400.0, "trend": 0.0408, "fair_value": 0.034769, "relative_strength": -8.941565, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.732446, "energy": 47.077929, "activity_lines": [ 0.039267, 0.039727, 0.040467, 0.040566 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.04, "volume": 107300, "typical_volume": 2913615.0, "trend": 0.040767, "fair_value": 0.034641, "relative_strength": -7.952186, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.015444, "energy": 30.675813, "activity_lines": [ 0.039467, 0.039673, 0.040429, 0.040514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.04, "volume": 228300, "typical_volume": 2425740.0, "trend": 0.0406, "fair_value": 0.034532, "relative_strength": -9.124034, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.040044, "energy": 26.394243, "activity_lines": [ 0.039667, 0.039673, 0.040381, 0.040465 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.039, "volume": 925500, "typical_volume": 2196025.0, "trend": 0.040567, "fair_value": 0.034391, "relative_strength": -12.838024, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.100532, "energy": 26.27501, "activity_lines": [ 0.039467, 0.039509, 0.040229, 0.040361 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }