{ "ticker": { "uuid": "215632b6-3a60-4631-88ac-865f52d36af5", "symbol": "002186", "name": "China Quanjude(Group) Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.884, "architecture_energy": 32.771, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.351, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.88, "rotation_up": 27.45, "upward_expansion": 17.37, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 35.81, "downward_expansion": 67.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.007333, 8.890727, 9.239238, 9.648473 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.16, "trend_reference": 10.285667, "distance_from_trend": -0.10944, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.805064, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.152249, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.917353, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.242349, "excess_performance": -0.249749, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.10944, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089576, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.152249, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120095, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.199174, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035923, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.242349, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.355756, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19213821, "relative_activity": 1.147619, "balance": 0.355756, "dry_up": 1.27835, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06567, "annualized_volatility": 0.232295, "from_high_reference": -0.400916, "from_low_reference": 0.098321 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.285667, "fair_value_reference": 10.805064, "structural_low": 8.34, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.004396, "positive_rate": 0.419355, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": -0.004383, "regime_survival": 0.806452, "best_return": 0.224537, "worst_return": -0.111111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.003601, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.020981, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.218722, "worst_return": -0.159656, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.051859, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.017398, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.242533, "worst_return": -0.151116, "sufficient": true 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.118905, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016057, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031716, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043732, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019266, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.728892, "energy": 65.084541, "activity_lines": [ 8.722667, 8.904545, 9.458143, 9.933183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.54, "volume": 17998416, "typical_volume": 16314437.95, "trend": 10.455333, "fair_value": 10.8575, "relative_strength": -23.664173, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.427844, "energy": 63.031414, "activity_lines": [ 8.672667, 8.792909, 9.33019, 9.801269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.3, "volume": 28366390, "typical_volume": 16691933.05, "trend": 10.373, "fair_value": 10.83609, "relative_strength": -15.049076, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.812444, "energy": 43.744185, "activity_lines": [ 8.892667, 8.850727, 9.287524, 9.726731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.16, "volume": 19213821, "typical_volume": 16742334.15, "trend": 10.285667, "fair_value": 10.805064, "relative_strength": -19.917353, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.883526, "energy": 32.77061, "activity_lines": [ 9.007333, 8.890727, 9.239238, 9.648473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }