{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2160dd64-70bc-4f7c-b360-7369df2234e2", "symbol": "SGOL", "name": "ABRDN GOLD ETF TR ABRDN PHYSICAL GOLD SHARES ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 71.503, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.641, "architecture_energy": 42.662, "architecture_maturity": 54.236, "architecture_confidence": 69.253, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.44, "rotation_up": 25.66, "upward_expansion": 17.94, "deceleration": 66.33, "rotation_down": 49.82, "downward_expansion": 72.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.490667, 39.358, 40.660095, 41.967634 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 41.35, "trend_reference": 43.621, "distance_from_trend": -0.052062, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.883462, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.383709, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.647156, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.123569, "excess_performance": -0.249194, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.052062, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008065, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.383709, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.21903, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106472, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134213, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.123569, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.509363, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10314612, "relative_activity": 0.735077, "balance": 0.509363, "dry_up": 0.772184, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046293, "annualized_volatility": 0.241997, "from_high_reference": -0.217449, "from_low_reference": 0.30813 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.621, "fair_value_reference": 29.883462, "structural_low": 37.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.004338, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.006807, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.074921, "worst_return": -0.042985, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.038033, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.002552, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.163831, "worst_return": -0.039346, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.118039, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.107214, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.121196, "worst_return": 0.114909, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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10690839, "typical_volume": 15724187.7, "trend": 43.765, "fair_value": 29.607564, "relative_strength": -12.692397, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.255056, "energy": 68.24695, "activity_lines": [ 38.696, 39.349091, 41.08481, 42.452774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.57, "volume": 12293888, "typical_volume": 15274901.7, "trend": 43.674667, "fair_value": 29.735769, "relative_strength": -13.671602, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.037669, "energy": 59.3493, "activity_lines": [ 38.623333, 39.061091, 40.718143, 42.117613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.35, "volume": 10314612, "typical_volume": 14032024.85, "trend": 43.621, "fair_value": 29.883462, "relative_strength": -10.647156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.641292, "energy": 42.662034, "activity_lines": [ 39.490667, 39.358, 40.660095, 41.967634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }