{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2169ccdb-663c-49a8-a3db-6b3f18aa72be", "symbol": "300589", "name": "Jianglong Shipbuilding Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.379, "architecture_energy": 41.345, "architecture_maturity": 84.415, "architecture_confidence": 65.049, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.19, "rotation_up": 26.44, "upward_expansion": 17.98, "deceleration": 66.95, "rotation_down": 37.48, "downward_expansion": 63.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.526667, 12.415091, 13.260524, 14.270452 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 13.25, "trend_reference": 15.83, "distance_from_trend": -0.162982, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.595573, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.025418, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.402709, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.254361, "excess_performance": -0.261761, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.162982, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117056, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.025418, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.26389, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.194027, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070685, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.254361, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.756244, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 96402169, "relative_activity": 1.348676, "balance": 0.756244, "dry_up": 1.373696, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102177, "annualized_volatility": 0.485458, "from_high_reference": -0.507435, "from_low_reference": 0.29521 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.83, "fair_value_reference": 13.595573, "structural_low": 10.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.03904, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.015075, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.284348, "worst_return": -0.143417, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.214821, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.083712, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.361064, "worst_return": -0.139419, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.126716, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.00784, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.32464, "worst_return": -0.256432, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037754, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.092033, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028369, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.181672, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013381, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.884976, "energy": 60.19657, "activity_lines": [ 11.948, 12.300909, 13.528905, 14.677957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.64, "volume": 133398056, "typical_volume": 71256483.55, "trend": 15.99, "fair_value": 13.602192, "relative_strength": -19.471341, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.082971, "energy": 54.120536, "activity_lines": [ 12.166667, 12.284545, 13.354619, 14.447226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.25, "volume": 96402169, "typical_volume": 71479116.35, "trend": 15.83, "fair_value": 13.595573, "relative_strength": -19.402709, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.379192, "energy": 41.345035, "activity_lines": [ 12.526667, 12.415091, 13.260524, 14.270452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }