{ "ticker": { "uuid": "216aedc0-3e17-41df-843f-7da18c86528f", "symbol": "600880", "name": "Chengdu B-ray Media Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.574, "architecture_energy": 48.748, "architecture_maturity": 75.562, "architecture_confidence": 72.104, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.41, "rotation_up": 25.91, "upward_expansion": 14.98, "deceleration": 66.55, "rotation_down": 47.05, "downward_expansion": 73.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.849333, 3.847455, 4.141524, 4.416366 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.99, "trend_reference": 4.849333, "distance_from_trend": -0.177206, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.748169, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.159676, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.469387, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.339404, "excess_performance": -0.2962, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.177206, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075319, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.159676, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.251182, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.184694, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133406, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.339404, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.491605, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 121098135, "relative_activity": 1.174381, "balance": 0.491605, "dry_up": 1.190324, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086563, "annualized_volatility": 0.334274, "from_high_reference": -0.490421, "from_low_reference": 0.130312 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.849333, "fair_value_reference": 4.748169, "structural_low": 3.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.033169, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.020342, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.275482, "worst_return": -0.234615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.069686, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.039243, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.280802, "worst_return": -0.176422, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.103886, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.017306, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.123123, "worst_return": -0.226192, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -22.639318, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.374964, "energy": 81.365585, "activity_lines": [ 3.798, 3.952545, 4.336619, 4.626108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.55, "volume": 107334393, "typical_volume": 100530804.8, "trend": 4.911, "fair_value": 4.767925, "relative_strength": -26.11973, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.094526, "energy": 74.714181, "activity_lines": [ 3.706, 3.844182, 4.237238, 4.535204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.96, "volume": 125633648, "typical_volume": 101535318.05, "trend": 4.881, "fair_value": 4.757346, "relative_strength": -17.411937, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.685308, "energy": 58.643103, "activity_lines": [ 3.781333, 3.836727, 4.18519, 4.473849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.99, "volume": 121098135, "typical_volume": 103116542.25, "trend": 4.849333, "fair_value": 4.748169, "relative_strength": -18.469387, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.573862, "energy": 48.747826, "activity_lines": [ 3.849333, 3.847455, 4.141524, 4.416366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }