{ "ticker": { "uuid": "216b0c9f-0857-4ccc-bb46-fa4e872d1980", "symbol": "ZTO", "name": "ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 64.409, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 22.088, "architecture_energy": 22.186, "architecture_maturity": 14.163, "architecture_confidence": 50.267, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.02, "rotation_up": 57.66, "upward_expansion": 47.17, "deceleration": 42.55, "rotation_down": 17.43, "downward_expansion": 7.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.846, 23.480364, 23.458447, 23.583421 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 23.6, "trend_reference": 23.550888, "distance_from_trend": 0.002085, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.181086, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.169412, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.118531, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.004784, "excess_performance": -0.130409, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002085, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041569, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.169412, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066536, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031185, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124218, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.004784, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.017217, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10815704, "relative_activity": 1.360676, "balance": 1.017217, "dry_up": 1.157717, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048778, "annualized_volatility": 0.221946, "from_high_reference": -0.091259, "from_low_reference": 0.372568 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.550888, "fair_value_reference": 20.181086, "structural_low": 21.47, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.001417, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": 0.017424, "regime_survival": 0.619048, "best_return": 0.271383, "worst_return": -0.121892, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.040527, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.042177, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.175975, "worst_return": -0.141203, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.00882, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005956, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.280988, "worst_return": -0.213653, "sufficient": true }, { 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.627826, "energy": 11.201499, "activity_lines": [ 23.332, 22.964182, 23.411575, 23.488881 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.98, "volume": 4913638, "typical_volume": 7763180.95, "trend": 23.379734, "fair_value": 20.181597, "relative_strength": 2.960718, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.02627, "energy": 21.610637, "activity_lines": [ 23.676, 23.166, 23.443435, 23.53413 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.02, "volume": 13202514, "typical_volume": 8059657.65, "trend": 23.476248, "fair_value": 20.179661, "relative_strength": 1.997523, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.509353, "energy": 24.361085, "activity_lines": [ 23.901333, 23.370727, 23.471788, 23.575437 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.6, "volume": 10815704, "typical_volume": 7948774.05, "trend": 23.550888, "fair_value": 20.181086, "relative_strength": -3.118531, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.088456, "energy": 22.185583, "activity_lines": [ 23.846, 23.480364, 23.458447, 23.583421 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }