{ "ticker": { "uuid": "216b8c27-dedb-4a0f-8dd8-a801dc159306", "symbol": "STCE", "name": "SCHWAB STRATEGIC TR CRYPTO THEMATIC ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 54.244, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.978, "architecture_energy": 27.954, "architecture_maturity": 33.44, "architecture_confidence": 67.971, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.09, "rotation_up": 15.02, "upward_expansion": 16.23, "deceleration": 59.74, "rotation_down": 66.6, "downward_expansion": 48.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 63.036, 65.728182, 68.26881, 66.520624 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 62.53, "trend_reference": 64.986667, "distance_from_trend": -0.037803, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 46.800404, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.3361, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.131308, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.069803, "excess_performance": -0.055822, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.037803, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002535, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.3361, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.383114, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.181313, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.230238, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.069803, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.010082, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 441823, "relative_activity": 0.6789, "balance": 1.010082, "dry_up": 0.861249, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133595, "annualized_volatility": 0.466648, "from_high_reference": -0.420784, "from_low_reference": 0.293278 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 64.986667, "fair_value_reference": 46.800404, "structural_low": 48.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming 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"date": "2026-07-03", "close": 65.94, "volume": 805399, "typical_volume": 632362.35, "trend": 65.3765, "fair_value": 45.56899, "relative_strength": -10.602189, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.855922, "energy": 23.962612, "activity_lines": [ 72.104, 73.381636, 69.475524, 67.084581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 66.51, "volume": 646426, "typical_volume": 646896.6, "trend": 65.3285, "fair_value": 45.826887, "relative_strength": -11.051469, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.687279, "energy": 17.736148, "activity_lines": [ 69.927333, 72.176364, 69.601286, 67.15771 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 61.73, "volume": 757975, "typical_volume": 658790.5, "trend": 65.207833, "fair_value": 46.056895, "relative_strength": -15.992883, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.052014, "energy": 18.308771, "activity_lines": [ 66.489333, 70.095818, 69.219714, 66.925548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 64.36, "volume": 463120, "typical_volume": 655155.95, "trend": 65.2465, "fair_value": 46.303846, "relative_strength": -11.842578, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.674589, "energy": 23.427236, "activity_lines": [ 64.871333, 68.709636, 69.064333, 66.870849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 62.46, "volume": 579058, "typical_volume": 661851.85, "trend": 65.172, "fair_value": 46.549064, "relative_strength": -15.396676, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.90855, "energy": 25.550054, "activity_lines": [ 63.592667, 67.100727, 68.67919, 66.691075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 62.53, "volume": 441823, "typical_volume": 650792.15, "trend": 64.986667, "fair_value": 46.800404, "relative_strength": -18.131308, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.977919, "energy": 27.954213, "activity_lines": [ 63.036, 65.728182, 68.26881, 66.520624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }