{ "ticker": { "uuid": "216e0d72-4df4-4d75-9fd2-e96d75aa4a90", "symbol": "CWD", "name": "CaliberCos Inc. Class A Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.006, "architecture_energy": 71.029, "architecture_maturity": 88.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.747, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.27, "rotation_up": 14.55, "upward_expansion": 18.38, "deceleration": 34.79, "rotation_down": 71.87, "downward_expansion": 91.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.563213, 0.669575, 0.790987, 0.888764 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.5209, "trend_reference": 1.01636, "distance_from_trend": -0.487485, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.381258, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.954232, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -76.23379, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.547043, "excess_performance": -0.734497, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.487485, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.27836, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.954232, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019996, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.762338, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090673, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.547043, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 17.422357, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1263332, "relative_activity": 0.069838, "balance": 17.422357, "dry_up": 0.074545, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.475464, "annualized_volatility": 1.514587, "from_high_reference": -0.989148, "from_low_reference": 0.222483 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.01636, "fair_value_reference": 11.381258, "structural_low": 0.4261, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.09011, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.128301, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 3.101604, "worst_return": -0.611707, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.225166, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.16967, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.271654, "worst_return": -0.48996, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.501788, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.703759, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.345871, "worst_return": -0.706743, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"down", "direction": -74.109454, "energy": 66.429563, "activity_lines": [ 0.638693, 0.715007, 0.829044, 0.922512 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.5209, "volume": 1263332, "typical_volume": 18089372.8, "trend": 1.01636, "fair_value": 11.381258, "relative_strength": -76.23379, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.005596, "energy": 71.02917, "activity_lines": [ 0.563213, 0.669575, 0.790987, 0.888764 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }