{ "ticker": { "uuid": "216e6241-0909-40f2-82ef-5e9e2771782a", "symbol": "AVT-B", "name": "AVTECH Sweden AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.712, "architecture_energy": 74.073, "architecture_maturity": 78.401, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.96, "rotation_up": 17.34, "upward_expansion": 17.53, "deceleration": 37.99, "rotation_down": 64.41, "downward_expansion": 90.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.722667, 4.944273, 5.388162, 5.747483 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.27, "trend_reference": 6.236738, "distance_from_trend": -0.155007, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.346111, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.16957, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.49139, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.257774, "excess_performance": -0.319269, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.155007, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168249, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.16957, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173087, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.414914, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032361, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.257774, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.497151, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 754557, "relative_activity": 1.328101, "balance": 0.497151, "dry_up": 1.221669, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116228, "annualized_volatility": 0.690898, "from_high_reference": -0.572998, "from_low_reference": 0.259259 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.236738, "fair_value_reference": 6.346111, "structural_low": 4.185, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.034286, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.04047, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.55335, "worst_return": -0.255786, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.08046, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.054553, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.681481, "worst_return": -0.216279, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.484706, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.509512, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.831818, "worst_return": -0.318938, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"down", "direction": -79.775338, "energy": 53.830976, "activity_lines": [ 5.276, 5.482601, 5.915102, 6.228407 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.54, "volume": 1095083, "typical_volume": 533386.7, "trend": 6.611298, "fair_value": 6.317407, "relative_strength": -50.076005, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.186089, "energy": 70.052454, "activity_lines": [ 4.984, 5.280885, 5.753279, 6.087238 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.5, "volume": 508455, "typical_volume": 539650.25, "trend": 6.479385, "fair_value": 6.326054, "relative_strength": -50.47595, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.746429, "energy": 85.814246, "activity_lines": [ 4.763333, 5.101818, 5.600494, 5.951026 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.385, "volume": 418256, "typical_volume": 542653.75, "trend": 6.330527, "fair_value": 6.332716, "relative_strength": -51.342035, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.337549, "energy": 89.160468, "activity_lines": [ 4.549667, 4.929273, 5.447266, 5.815904 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.27, "volume": 754557, "typical_volume": 568147.15, "trend": 6.236738, "fair_value": 6.346111, "relative_strength": -41.49139, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.712351, "energy": 74.07318, "activity_lines": [ 4.722667, 4.944273, 5.388162, 5.747483 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }