{ "ticker": { "uuid": "216fbe42-2b22-4e48-b990-f8dd61b8d0ea", "symbol": "TVE", "name": "Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.263, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.74, "architecture_energy": 37.484, "architecture_maturity": 26.026, "architecture_confidence": 77.655, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.96, "rotation_up": 48.53, "upward_expansion": 77.65, "deceleration": 62.25, "rotation_down": 24.18, "downward_expansion": 4.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.012, 12.942166, 12.77707, 12.334065 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.56, "trend_reference": 11.555279, "distance_from_trend": 0.086949, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.691889, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.206649, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 20.060143, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.314473, "excess_performance": 0.194052, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086949, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.182246, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.206649, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.264658, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.200601, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.273442, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.314473, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.576025, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10047700, "relative_activity": 1.300074, "balance": 0.576025, "dry_up": 1.08275, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068128, "annualized_volatility": 0.303836, "from_high_reference": -0.09816, "from_low_reference": 1.453059 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.555279, "fair_value_reference": 5.691889, "structural_low": 9.146649, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.020106, "positive_rate": 0.657143, "directional_follow_through": 0.657143, "median_excess_return": 0.012834, "regime_survival": 0.771429, "best_return": 0.255745, "worst_return": -0.230876, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.17033, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.087592, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.41417, "worst_return": -0.209887, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.181128, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.10077, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.655045, "worst_return": -0.132223, "sufficient": true }, { 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"relative_strength": 32.627638, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.870586, "energy": 41.550236, "activity_lines": [ 13.010667, 12.914359, 12.652957, 12.117186 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.41, "volume": 8673400, "typical_volume": 8251670.0, "trend": 11.394007, "fair_value": 5.633114, "relative_strength": 33.779348, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.003426, "energy": 45.489059, "activity_lines": [ 13.187333, 13.01162, 12.761894, 12.25884 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.56, "volume": 10047700, "typical_volume": 7728560.0, "trend": 11.555279, "fair_value": 5.691889, "relative_strength": 20.060143, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.739717, "energy": 37.484474, "activity_lines": [ 13.012, 12.942166, 12.77707, 12.334065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }