{ "ticker": { "uuid": "21743f00-08d5-4380-867f-7e10998f8743", "symbol": "002611", "name": "Guangdong Dongfang Precision Science & Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.671, "architecture_energy": 63.924, "architecture_maturity": 11.982, "architecture_confidence": 83.457, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.45, "rotation_up": 12.1, "upward_expansion": 16.25, "deceleration": 34.52, "rotation_down": 66.42, "downward_expansion": 84.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.546667, 16.231818, 16.966562, 17.187181 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.27, "trend_reference": 17.584881, "distance_from_trend": -0.074773, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.200344, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.452634, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.836445, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.090009, "excess_performance": -0.097409, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.074773, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028883, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.452634, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.392304, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118364, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04808, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.090009, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.100487, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 158117933, "relative_activity": 0.903709, "balance": 1.100487, "dry_up": 0.980291, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118601, "annualized_volatility": 0.49573, "from_high_reference": -0.269725, "from_low_reference": 0.217814 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.584881, "fair_value_reference": 11.200344, "structural_low": 13.36, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.002016, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.016272, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.212644, "worst_return": -0.098077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.065118, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.026384, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.420398, "worst_return": -0.226923, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.353605, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.368308, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.219251, "worst_return": 0.098077, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.372832, "energy": 15.326174, "activity_lines": [ 17.748, 17.941038, 17.865995, 17.885706 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.15, "volume": 191012300, "typical_volume": 171080852.55, "trend": 17.879692, "fair_value": 11.009175, "relative_strength": -20.287682, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.962759, "energy": 57.003442, "activity_lines": [ 16.487333, 17.218727, 17.526742, 17.63646 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.12, "volume": 121611897, "typical_volume": 169120996.9, "trend": 17.762364, "fair_value": 11.063866, "relative_strength": -20.649235, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.343972, "energy": 70.054509, "activity_lines": [ 15.500666, 16.576182, 17.203197, 17.393899 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.97, "volume": 215326487, "typical_volume": 173323578.4, "trend": 17.681759, "fair_value": 11.130732, "relative_strength": -8.931641, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.204636, "energy": 65.410534, "activity_lines": [ 15.438667, 16.347636, 17.068424, 17.278263 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.27, "volume": 158117933, "typical_volume": 174965465.3, "trend": 17.584881, "fair_value": 11.200344, "relative_strength": -11.836445, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.671471, "energy": 63.923561, "activity_lines": [ 15.546667, 16.231818, 16.966562, 17.187181 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }