{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2177c3f8-d3f7-437f-9406-3d7ddd93ec48", "symbol": "MWOJ", "name": "Amundi MSCI USA ESG Selection Extra UCITS ETF DR - USD", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.84, "architecture_energy": 69.079, "architecture_maturity": 66.62, "architecture_confidence": 76.127, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.5, "rotation_up": 55.35, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 70.43, "rotation_down": 28.4, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.906266, 18.793127, 18.510009, 18.07037 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.476, "trend_reference": 17.580333, "distance_from_trend": 0.107829, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.15361, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.285238, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.910229, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.170433, "excess_performance": 0.105793, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.107829, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037629, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.285238, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043284, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.049102, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044211, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.170433, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.962967, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 58098, "relative_activity": 1.307596, "balance": 4.962967, "dry_up": 0.969697, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019298, "annualized_volatility": 0.138366, "from_high_reference": -0.004396, "from_low_reference": 0.253443 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.580333, "fair_value_reference": 15.15361, "structural_low": 15.538, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.00184, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.015499, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.203924, "worst_return": -0.154419, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.040067, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.031349, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.071729, "worst_return": -0.193786, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.041803, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.016018, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.177557, "worst_return": -0.112183, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.254935, "energy": 73.230889, "activity_lines": [ 18.728266, 18.623673, 18.090772, 17.711312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.614, "volume": 32817, "typical_volume": 41405.75, "trend": 17.392333, "fair_value": 15.012303, "relative_strength": 6.97671, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.141696, "energy": 69.259288, "activity_lines": [ 18.715066, 18.6396, 18.191276, 17.794039 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.511999, "volume": 24580, "typical_volume": 40417.65, "trend": 17.445667, "fair_value": 15.056008, "relative_strength": 4.992437, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.226203, "energy": 61.957151, "activity_lines": [ 18.654133, 18.626836, 18.27199, 17.866275 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.639999, "volume": 56844, "typical_volume": 42018.25, "trend": 17.506867, "fair_value": 15.101674, "relative_strength": 3.357331, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.842784, "energy": 55.581937, "activity_lines": [ 18.646266, 18.63549, 18.356333, 17.943329 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.476, "volume": 58098, "typical_volume": 44431.15, "trend": 17.580333, "fair_value": 15.15361, "relative_strength": 4.910229, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.840366, "energy": 69.078761, "activity_lines": [ 18.906266, 18.793127, 18.510009, 18.07037 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }