{ "ticker": { "uuid": "217cad75-bd1f-44f2-80d1-c98d0782e725", "symbol": "PTAL", "name": "PetroTal Corp.", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 63.046, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -31.563, "architecture_energy": 23.104, "architecture_maturity": 18.123, "architecture_confidence": 78.22, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.95, "rotation_up": 24.84, "upward_expansion": 13.62, "deceleration": 62.22, "rotation_down": 46.21, "downward_expansion": 41.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.255333, 0.256964, 0.272036, 0.272077 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.2475, "trend_reference": 0.263717, "distance_from_trend": -0.061493, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.324071, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.236279, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.182239, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.178571, "excess_performance": 0.127336, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.061493, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058324, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.236279, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.189876, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.171822, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167653, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.178571, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.07404, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2563740, "relative_activity": 0.856629, "balance": 1.07404, "dry_up": 0.662008, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118104, "annualized_volatility": 0.552714, "from_high_reference": -0.378141, "from_low_reference": 0.443149 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.263717, "fair_value_reference": 0.324071, "structural_low": 0.205, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.047264, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.057219, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.611113, "worst_return": -0.099879, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.06971, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.007546, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.338238, "worst_return": -0.387324, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.082971, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.069946, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.694123, "worst_return": -0.211268, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.084507, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.091603, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.12766, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.442786, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057627, "active": false 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0.256467, "fair_value": 0.325851, "relative_strength": -15.452936, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.941505, "energy": 31.833755, "activity_lines": [ 0.253333, 0.274727, 0.281745, 0.272902 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.25, "volume": 1392940, "typical_volume": 4006834.85, "trend": 0.2583, "fair_value": 0.325414, "relative_strength": -16.979729, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.549002, "energy": 44.687866, "activity_lines": [ 0.249, 0.267645, 0.278788, 0.272485 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.2725, "volume": 2126780, "typical_volume": 3473862.85, "trend": 0.260717, "fair_value": 0.325073, "relative_strength": -9.733989, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.683706, "energy": 32.862984, "activity_lines": [ 0.256167, 0.265782, 0.277807, 0.273401 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.255, "volume": 1841632, "typical_volume": 3164372.55, "trend": 0.2623, "fair_value": 0.324668, "relative_strength": -15.47007, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.109184, "energy": 18.589402, "activity_lines": [ 0.257333, 0.261555, 0.275195, 0.273032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.2475, "volume": 2563740, "typical_volume": 2992824.25, "trend": 0.263717, "fair_value": 0.324071, "relative_strength": -17.182239, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.563343, "energy": 23.103778, "activity_lines": [ 0.255333, 0.256964, 0.272036, 0.272077 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }