{ "ticker": { "uuid": "21802e76-5ea8-46fa-9c51-7a6b63dfd630", "symbol": "300968", "name": "Guangdong Green Precision Components Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.645, "architecture_energy": 19.008, "architecture_maturity": 97.05, "architecture_confidence": 85.27, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.41, "rotation_up": 26.17, "upward_expansion": 13.82, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 31.1, "downward_expansion": 63.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.416, 10.250727, 10.697524, 11.177763 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.86, "trend_reference": 12.025667, "distance_from_trend": -0.096932, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.627344, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.139962, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.177816, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.232509, "excess_performance": -0.239909, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.096932, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100728, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.139962, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132132, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.211778, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083435, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.232509, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.572726, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 92224719, "relative_activity": 2.129681, "balance": 0.572726, "dry_up": 2.951691, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.140176, "annualized_volatility": 0.529699, "from_high_reference": -0.363796, "from_low_reference": 0.335793 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.025667, "fair_value_reference": 12.627344, "structural_low": 8.13, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.028872, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.006739, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.107232, "worst_return": -0.160526, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.009917, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008388, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.201995, "worst_return": -0.184894, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.114738, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.126307, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.291482, "worst_return": -0.057495, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-85.693508, "energy": 90.490541, "activity_lines": [ 9.593333, 10.268364, 10.982905, 11.639656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.16, "volume": 80798852, "typical_volume": 25467606.05, "trend": 12.455, "fair_value": 12.593033, "relative_strength": -18.191232, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.899258, "energy": 51.473668, "activity_lines": [ 10.020667, 10.323091, 10.946476, 11.549591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.5, "volume": 216265521, "typical_volume": 34722618.85, "trend": 12.328333, "fair_value": 12.604985, "relative_strength": -22.603778, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.071585, "energy": 40.328118, "activity_lines": [ 10.174667, 10.278727, 10.86119, 11.423462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.82, "volume": 121996582, "typical_volume": 39806483.1, "trend": 12.16, "fair_value": 12.611752, "relative_strength": -25.71107, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.997317, "energy": 37.016269, "activity_lines": [ 10.122, 10.149273, 10.722952, 11.261634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.86, "volume": 92224719, "typical_volume": 43304478.2, "trend": 12.025667, "fair_value": 12.627344, "relative_strength": -21.177816, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.645214, "energy": 19.00829, "activity_lines": [ 10.416, 10.250727, 10.697524, 11.177763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }