{ "ticker": { "uuid": "218272cd-de52-44ad-8c23-3cfd49a65802", "symbol": "COGT", "name": "Cogent Biosciences Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.595, "architecture_energy": 64.335, "architecture_maturity": 17.021, "architecture_confidence": 82.255, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.0, "rotation_up": 73.56, "upward_expansion": 87.53, "deceleration": 45.07, "rotation_down": 10.76, "downward_expansion": 11.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.265333, 39.014909, 37.177762, 36.709161 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 42.39, "trend_reference": 36.456333, "distance_from_trend": 0.162761, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.835128, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.67696, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 20.424553, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.143204, "excess_performance": -0.04425, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.162761, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018381, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.67696, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.158984, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.204246, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027584, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.143204, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.149199, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10935212, "relative_activity": 0.975565, "balance": 3.149199, "dry_up": 0.838332, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080702, "annualized_volatility": 0.372895, "from_high_reference": -0.030643, "from_low_reference": 2.954291 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.456333, "fair_value_reference": 15.835128, "structural_low": 30.87, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.058987, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": 0.019881, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 1.42961, "worst_return": -0.164835, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.238443, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.188609, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.203067, "worst_return": -0.381633, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.163663, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.126411, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.15, "worst_return": -0.517347, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 15.11891, "relative_strength": 16.782008, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.806068, "energy": 32.983936, "activity_lines": [ 37.706, 35.911636, 35.520524, 35.693978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.08, "volume": 10349506, "typical_volume": 11467428.3, "trend": 36.052667, "fair_value": 15.291154, "relative_strength": 20.794217, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.743713, "energy": 47.149441, "activity_lines": [ 38.512667, 36.664909, 35.856476, 35.88828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.76, "volume": 9181540, "typical_volume": 11450973.4, "trend": 36.082, "fair_value": 15.464551, "relative_strength": 23.022688, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.462817, "energy": 68.651832, "activity_lines": [ 39.147333, 37.462909, 36.256095, 36.127462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.93, "volume": 7121526, "typical_volume": 11354003.8, "trend": 36.221667, "fair_value": 15.640321, "relative_strength": 18.06923, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.267265, "energy": 60.795915, "activity_lines": [ 39.157333, 37.981273, 36.563905, 36.311204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.39, "volume": 10935212, "typical_volume": 11209102.4, "trend": 36.456333, "fair_value": 15.835128, "relative_strength": 20.424553, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.594795, "energy": 64.334897, "activity_lines": [ 40.265333, 39.014909, 37.177762, 36.709161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }