{ "ticker": { "uuid": "218812be-5f76-4643-b328-146901e18ba8", "symbol": "6126", "name": "Singatron Enterprise Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.397, "architecture_energy": 60.173, "architecture_maturity": 12.182, "architecture_confidence": 78.057, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.85, "rotation_up": 9.05, "upward_expansion": 11.39, "deceleration": 39.52, "rotation_down": 72.84, "downward_expansion": 87.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.673333, 32.289091, 33.88119, 33.914086 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 30.0, "trend_reference": 34.375, "distance_from_trend": -0.127273, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.702879, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.010003, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.146187, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.2, "excess_performance": -0.641372, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.127273, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030632, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.010003, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119764, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.331462, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099683, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.2, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.137394, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3099782, "relative_activity": 0.288368, "balance": 1.137394, "dry_up": 0.255064, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128974, "annualized_volatility": 0.526019, "from_high_reference": -0.325843, "from_low_reference": 0.193344 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.375, "fair_value_reference": 29.702879, "structural_low": 28.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.023013, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": -0.004365, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.240009, "worst_return": -0.201068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.02053, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01301, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.193891, "worst_return": -0.178862, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.033944, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.127759, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.502475, "worst_return": -0.100188, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067179, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007452, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.109827, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014754, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022013, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", 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44.365526, "activity_lines": [ 31.526666, 33.988181, 34.457381, 34.386451 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.75, "volume": 1787654, "typical_volume": 10752602.4, "trend": 34.535, "fair_value": 29.692849, "relative_strength": -27.281243, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.279277, "energy": 51.962055, "activity_lines": [ 31.24, 33.263636, 34.25, 34.206666 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 30.0, "volume": 3099782, "typical_volume": 10749407.6, "trend": 34.375, "fair_value": 29.702879, "relative_strength": -33.146187, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.397266, "energy": 60.172557, "activity_lines": [ 30.673333, 32.289091, 33.88119, 33.914086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }