{ "ticker": { "uuid": "218c1ec9-eee9-4f4a-b896-94338fcfccd9", "symbol": "OSUR", "name": "OraSure Technologies Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.358, "architecture_energy": 22.286, "architecture_maturity": 74.056, "architecture_confidence": 94.016, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.56, "rotation_up": 24.14, "upward_expansion": 56.6, "deceleration": 91.12, "rotation_down": 27.84, "downward_expansion": 20.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.026333, 4.114727, 3.932143, 3.706215 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.05, "trend_reference": 3.4085, "distance_from_trend": 0.188206, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.24141, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.045129, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.579276, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.494465, "excess_performance": 0.307011, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.188206, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.204488, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.045129, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.249771, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.135793, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.252619, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.494465, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.359247, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2690012, "relative_activity": 0.995663, "balance": 1.359247, "dry_up": 0.745157, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10449, "annualized_volatility": 0.47854, "from_high_reference": -0.115721, "from_low_reference": 0.947115 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.4085, "fair_value_reference": 4.24141, "structural_low": 2.51, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.005563, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.001056, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.064593, "worst_return": -0.175657, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.114596, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.023405, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.319672, "worst_return": -0.324061, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.093023, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.446109, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.059809, "worst_return": -0.413074, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.05053, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.285115, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.569767, "worst_return": -0.468707, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.252632, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00813, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.121001, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.134959, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.23133, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062201, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.3125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.227419, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017316, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.172269, "active": false }, { 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1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.965265, "energy": 51.506223, "activity_lines": [ 4.183333, 4.164636, 3.804833, 3.567538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.97, "volume": 2035664, "typical_volume": 2802282.25, "trend": 3.3055, "fair_value": 4.269423, "relative_strength": 18.191746, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.189487, "energy": 37.234073, "activity_lines": [ 4.091667, 4.152727, 3.846381, 3.613742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.05, "volume": 1439281, "typical_volume": 2757178.5, "trend": 3.361167, "fair_value": 4.257308, "relative_strength": 19.711759, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.088502, "energy": 28.690846, "activity_lines": [ 4.045333, 4.137727, 3.891833, 3.661774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.05, "volume": 2690012, "typical_volume": 2701728.35, "trend": 3.4085, "fair_value": 4.24141, "relative_strength": 13.579276, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.357601, "energy": 22.285862, "activity_lines": [ 4.026333, 4.114727, 3.932143, 3.706215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }