{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2191f6f2-6511-4b1d-a7e8-dae20c5c326d", "symbol": "PRIM", "name": "Primoris Services Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.676, "architecture_energy": 72.402, "architecture_maturity": 44.036, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.67, "rotation_up": 24.87, "upward_expansion": 17.06, "deceleration": 39.2, "rotation_down": 61.66, "downward_expansion": 95.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 84.589333, 87.910313, 102.845562, 114.567336 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 82.63, "trend_reference": 128.548336, "distance_from_trend": -0.357207, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 79.683805, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.036974, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.682798, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.485012, "excess_performance": -0.610637, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.357207, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077445, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.036974, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.379987, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.426828, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.186191, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.485012, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.470638, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7809224, "relative_activity": 0.891781, "balance": 0.470638, "dry_up": 0.825786, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.199164, "annualized_volatility": 0.887271, "from_high_reference": -0.597583, "from_low_reference": 0.272257 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 128.548336, "fair_value_reference": 79.683805, "structural_low": 64.947581, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.008997, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": 0.007088, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.337467, "worst_return": -0.17172, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.032749, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.002314, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.569191, "worst_return": -0.073995, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.111621, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.066076, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.426929, "worst_return": -0.117441, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 79.029519, "relative_strength": -37.871207, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.932988, "energy": 62.250573, "activity_lines": [ 87.041661, 93.482915, 110.171064, 120.679856 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 84.41, "volume": 7077150, "typical_volume": 8607800.1, "trend": 130.123248, "fair_value": 79.369616, "relative_strength": -39.821996, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.89798, "energy": 51.419827, "activity_lines": [ 85.824667, 90.558021, 106.476372, 117.631417 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 82.63, "volume": 7809224, "typical_volume": 8756883.2, "trend": 128.548336, "fair_value": 79.683805, "relative_strength": -42.682798, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.676145, "energy": 72.40156, "activity_lines": [ 84.589333, 87.910313, 102.845562, 114.567336 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }