{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "21969431-9e10-40d4-bc64-95189baef75e",
    "symbol": "XXSC",
    "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Europe Small Cap UCITS ETF 1C",
    "exchange": "GER",
    "country": "DE",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GDAXI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 89.278,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 82.472,
    "architecture_energy": 75.527,
    "architecture_maturity": 35.039,
    "architecture_confidence": 82.967,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 6.1,
        "rotation_up": 71.12,
        "upward_expansion": 91.47,
        "deceleration": 42.85,
        "rotation_down": 16.03,
        "downward_expansion": 15.8
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        74.273999,
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        73.005715,
        72.117291
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      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 75.779999,
    "trend_reference": 71.289667,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.062987,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 61.604962,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.230096,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 1.118384,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.06898,
    "excess_performance": 0.00434,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.062987,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.032954,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.230096,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.025297,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.011184,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.048369,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.06898,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.720889,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 117047,
      "relative_activity": 0.720005,
      "balance": 2.720889,
      "dry_up": 0.904299,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.020911,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.155971,
      "from_high_reference": -0.031862,
      "from_low_reference": 0.204387
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 71.289667,
      "fair_value_reference": 61.604962,
      "structural_low": 62.919998,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 29,
        "median_return": 0.001479,
        "positive_rate": 0.551724,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.551724,
        "median_excess_return": 0.001162,
        "regime_survival": 0.724138,
        "best_return": 0.064287,
        "worst_return": -0.06206,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": 0.029595,
        "positive_rate": 0.636364,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.636364,
        "median_excess_return": -0.013201,
        "regime_survival": 0.363636,
        "best_return": 0.051367,
        "worst_return": -0.080389,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.058364,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.010391,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.097417,
        "worst_return": -0.025143,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.062146,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
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        "regime_survival": 0.5,
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        "worst_return": -0.165079,
        "sufficient": false
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        "start": "2024-11-29",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
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        "regime": "balance",
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "relative_strength": 4.904498,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 374717.35,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "relative_strength": 3.823689,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 344728.7,
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        "relative_strength": 5.005812,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "energy": 33.003911,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 301897.55,
        "trend": 70.276334,
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        "relative_strength": 1.270003,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 285800.9,
        "trend": 70.494667,
        "fair_value": 61.058744,
        "relative_strength": 1.99672,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "energy": 32.397819,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 204915,
        "typical_volume": 261952.8,
        "trend": 70.707001,
        "fair_value": 61.188936,
        "relative_strength": 3.85959,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 57.965121,
        "energy": 36.274209,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 73.489998,
        "volume": 184090,
        "typical_volume": 245987.9,
        "trend": 70.911667,
        "fair_value": 61.317462,
        "relative_strength": 3.025619,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 61.2657,
        "energy": 48.614175,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 73.970001,
        "volume": 81974,
        "typical_volume": 194289.75,
        "trend": 71.102334,
        "fair_value": 61.453615,
        "relative_strength": 1.46371,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.374924,
        "energy": 48.823666,
        "activity_lines": [
          73.481999,
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          72.594239,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 75.779999,
        "volume": 117047,
        "typical_volume": 162564.1,
        "trend": 71.289667,
        "fair_value": 61.604962,
        "relative_strength": 1.118384,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 82.472499,
        "energy": 75.527192,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}