{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2198f040-2c02-4774-9769-c1320c783e6c", "symbol": "MMS", "name": "Maximus Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.553, "architecture_energy": 20.009, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 70.067, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.11, "rotation_up": 27.22, "upward_expansion": 19.08, "deceleration": 46.92, "rotation_down": 24.6, "downward_expansion": 55.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 59.279333, 58.337818, 59.55636, 62.087216 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 59.19, "trend_reference": 67.463049, "distance_from_trend": -0.122631, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 76.375801, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.225016, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.386719, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.203756, "excess_performance": -0.329381, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.122631, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117968, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.225016, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043269, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.303867, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029817, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.203756, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.087343, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4278819, "relative_activity": 1.212756, "balance": 1.087343, "dry_up": 0.955935, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084775, "annualized_volatility": 0.299132, "from_high_reference": -0.40218, "from_low_reference": 0.122511 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 67.463049, "fair_value_reference": 76.375801, "structural_low": 52.73, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.012896, "positive_rate": 0.413793, "directional_follow_through": 0.586207, "median_excess_return": 0.005427, "regime_survival": 0.862069, "best_return": 0.143887, "worst_return": -0.200359, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.016579, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.04313, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.201726, "worst_return": -0.219631, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.016269, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.068312, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.247918, "worst_return": -0.193605, "sufficient": true 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57.743091, 60.259409, 63.992889 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 59.67, "volume": 2976027, "typical_volume": 3511021.1, "trend": 69.538469, "fair_value": 76.58588, "relative_strength": -27.654617, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.691341, "energy": 42.255292, "activity_lines": [ 57.831333, 57.933455, 59.946366, 63.299569 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 60.25, "volume": 2871235, "typical_volume": 3516454.25, "trend": 68.693013, "fair_value": 76.48537, "relative_strength": -27.29394, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.711956, "energy": 27.393697, "activity_lines": [ 58.922667, 58.223636, 59.77384, 62.700313 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.19, "volume": 4278819, "typical_volume": 3528178.1, "trend": 67.463049, "fair_value": 76.375801, "relative_strength": -30.386719, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.552567, "energy": 20.009302, "activity_lines": [ 59.279333, 58.337818, 59.55636, 62.087216 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }