{ "ticker": { "uuid": "219eef4e-dd2f-44c8-be04-7132f0f62fae", "symbol": "600528", "name": "China Railway Hi-tech Industry Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.865, "architecture_energy": 26.719, "architecture_maturity": 93.055, "architecture_confidence": 80.014, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.25, "rotation_up": 27.68, "upward_expansion": 21.56, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 28.65, "downward_expansion": 60.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.121333, 7.034364, 7.203571, 7.424731 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.14, "trend_reference": 7.724667, "distance_from_trend": -0.075688, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.803229, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.084994, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.320017, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.145933, "excess_performance": -0.102729, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.075688, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047592, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.084994, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080678, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1032, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002161, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.145933, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.27937, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70228533, "relative_activity": 0.796143, "balance": 0.27937, "dry_up": 0.76759, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045464, "annualized_volatility": 0.211738, "from_high_reference": -0.25625, "from_low_reference": 0.075301 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.724667, "fair_value_reference": 7.803229, "structural_low": 6.64, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.001299, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.0063, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.214003, "worst_return": -0.076835, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.054622, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.005325, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.189008, "worst_return": -0.147766, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.094193, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.036314, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.322497, "worst_return": -0.113402, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -10.347686, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.422797, "energy": 64.310128, "activity_lines": [ 6.936, 6.976909, 7.252429, 7.496151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.3, "volume": 63170904, "typical_volume": 90797254.35, "trend": 7.759333, "fair_value": 7.81599, "relative_strength": -6.358564, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.415664, "energy": 38.793384, "activity_lines": [ 7.075333, 7.018545, 7.232238, 7.464688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.14, "volume": 70228533, "typical_volume": 88210915.05, "trend": 7.724667, "fair_value": 7.803229, "relative_strength": -10.320017, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.864677, "energy": 26.719289, "activity_lines": [ 7.121333, 7.034364, 7.203571, 7.424731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }