{ "ticker": { "uuid": "21a2dbaa-605b-4920-bba9-6122bb4d9024", "symbol": "ODF", "name": "Odfjell SE", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -18.722, "architecture_energy": 16.408, "architecture_maturity": 29.618, "architecture_confidence": 72.043, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.76, "rotation_up": 36.01, "upward_expansion": 31.6, "deceleration": 46.64, "rotation_down": 25.13, "downward_expansion": 44.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 113.573334, 112.178182, 111.967619, 113.656045 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 110.800003, "trend_reference": 116.799203, "distance_from_trend": -0.051363, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 108.694651, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.019369, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.015824, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.128054, "excess_performance": -0.253048, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.051363, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027148, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.019369, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048954, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.160158, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000329, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.128054, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.643324, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 140902, "relative_activity": 1.056062, "balance": 0.643324, "dry_up": 1.076006, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058178, "annualized_volatility": 0.265532, "from_high_reference": -0.179259, "from_low_reference": 0.082031 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 116.799203, "fair_value_reference": 108.694651, "structural_low": 102.400002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.01738, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.002355, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.059643, "worst_return": -0.069767, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.102284, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.066233, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.196808, "worst_return": -0.018868, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.250692, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.209485, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.301491, "worst_return": 0.199892, "sufficient": false }, { 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151131.5, "trend": 117.676039, "fair_value": 107.729575, "relative_strength": -11.987238, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.770517, "energy": 27.654017, "activity_lines": [ 110.359999, 110.196363, 111.8, 114.295078 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 117.800003, "volume": 171569, "typical_volume": 141843.15, "trend": 117.616883, "fair_value": 108.07963, "relative_strength": -10.736861, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.410737, "energy": 12.284981, "activity_lines": [ 113.12, 111.621818, 112.177143, 114.303076 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 114.199997, "volume": 120010, "typical_volume": 135761.75, "trend": 117.412095, "fair_value": 108.394881, "relative_strength": -13.539119, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.128808, "energy": 16.554164, "activity_lines": [ 114.119999, 112.250909, 112.228571, 114.082632 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 110.800003, "volume": 140902, "typical_volume": 133422.1, "trend": 116.799203, "fair_value": 108.694651, "relative_strength": -16.015824, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.721534, "energy": 16.407917, "activity_lines": [ 113.573334, 112.178182, 111.967619, 113.656045 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }