{ "ticker": { "uuid": "21a54cc1-2b1d-4c9b-a058-7a54dc776a1e", "symbol": "605277", "name": "Xinya Electronic Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.993, "architecture_energy": 75.309, "architecture_maturity": 24.394, "architecture_confidence": 85.753, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.54, "rotation_up": 9.4, "upward_expansion": 17.27, "deceleration": 37.31, "rotation_down": 76.06, "downward_expansion": 92.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.725333, 15.70988, 17.060474, 17.744719 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 15.23, "trend_reference": 18.57161, "distance_from_trend": -0.179931, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.94612, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.09206, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.43964, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.259601, "excess_performance": -0.216397, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.179931, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035764, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.09206, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.402906, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.194396, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175334, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.259601, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.488202, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31258220, "relative_activity": 0.632379, "balance": 0.488202, "dry_up": 0.66088, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.136237, "annualized_volatility": 0.478678, "from_high_reference": -0.368156, "from_low_reference": 0.187988 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.57161, "fair_value_reference": 13.94612, "structural_low": 12.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.066108, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.043468, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.602122, "worst_return": -0.054625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.388667, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.287775, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.581565, "worst_return": 0.147741, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.440375, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.359061, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.471697, "worst_return": 0.390302, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.68869, "energy": 50.028354, "activity_lines": [ 17.523996, 18.07402, 18.576138, 18.88276 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.98, "volume": 36699019, "typical_volume": 56387202.7, "trend": 18.946147, "fair_value": 13.859675, "relative_strength": -24.512542, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.324974, "energy": 71.17012, "activity_lines": [ 16.295333, 17.246634, 18.106672, 18.55239 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.02, "volume": 36535632, "typical_volume": 54930700.45, "trend": 18.804701, "fair_value": 13.883843, "relative_strength": -24.714423, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.880312, "energy": 80.125076, "activity_lines": [ 15.260667, 16.533906, 17.67675, 18.234574 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.65, "volume": 26175103, "typical_volume": 53727591.1, "trend": 18.668054, "fair_value": 13.911449, "relative_strength": -21.180316, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.097824, "energy": 78.114761, "activity_lines": [ 14.724667, 16.0307, 17.330761, 17.966529 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.23, "volume": 31258220, "typical_volume": 49429529.5, "trend": 18.57161, "fair_value": 13.94612, "relative_strength": -19.43964, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.992855, "energy": 75.309251, "activity_lines": [ 14.725333, 15.70988, 17.060474, 17.744719 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }