{ "ticker": { "uuid": "21a57d89-04b3-47e8-afa8-41e7ddb5b9fd", "symbol": "SRIJ", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy MSCI Japan SRI PAB UCITS ETF Distribution", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.614, "architecture_energy": 72.174, "architecture_maturity": 47.63, "architecture_confidence": 78.156, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.36, "rotation_up": 70.66, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 66.54, "rotation_down": 18.2, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.823307, 24.531753, 23.845588, 23.403992 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 25.608299, "trend_reference": 22.931138, "distance_from_trend": 0.116748, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.058449, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.216058, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.621726, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.153391, "excess_performance": 0.10008, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.116748, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041799, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.216058, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122451, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.076217, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029704, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.153391, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.228387, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14460, "relative_activity": 1.414811, "balance": 1.228387, "dry_up": 1.954684, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024371, "annualized_volatility": 0.179654, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.23534 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.931138, "fair_value_reference": 21.058449, "structural_low": 21.071347, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.012118, "positive_rate": 0.347826, "directional_follow_through": 0.347826, "median_excess_return": -0.001272, "regime_survival": 0.608696, "best_return": 0.064703, "worst_return": -0.092909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.023634, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.011417, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.002004, "worst_return": -0.073743, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.030058, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.019816, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.002752, "worst_return": -0.091876, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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24.863701, "volume": 24177, "typical_volume": 7349.75, "trend": 22.519589, "fair_value": 20.941676, "relative_strength": 9.990706, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.247627, "energy": 95.342803, "activity_lines": [ 24.30508, 23.788195, 23.147765, 22.880699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.459, "volume": 16610, "typical_volume": 7686.75, "trend": 22.625867, "fair_value": 20.968725, "relative_strength": 7.916476, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.064324, "energy": 87.765954, "activity_lines": [ 24.438014, 23.974058, 23.310677, 23.005822 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.461201, "volume": 13333, "typical_volume": 7922.85, "trend": 22.731006, "fair_value": 20.992586, "relative_strength": 7.25571, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.768217, "energy": 84.779121, "activity_lines": [ 24.50002, 24.128733, 23.469473, 23.124231 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.2857, "volume": 35508, "typical_volume": 9546.5, "trend": 22.826693, "fair_value": 21.021615, "relative_strength": 4.670614, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.179808, "energy": 62.955791, "activity_lines": [ 24.460927, 24.222738, 23.600735, 23.224533 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.608299, "volume": 14460, "typical_volume": 10220.45, "trend": 22.931138, "fair_value": 21.058449, "relative_strength": 7.621726, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.614211, "energy": 72.174294, "activity_lines": [ 24.823307, 24.531753, 23.845588, 23.403992 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }