{ "ticker": { "uuid": "21a7ac20-2c09-4333-a5fd-274603b26798", "symbol": "KETL", "name": "Strix Group Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.303, "architecture_energy": 65.737, "architecture_maturity": 25.412, "architecture_confidence": 87.118, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.81, "rotation_up": 11.2, "upward_expansion": 13.67, "deceleration": 39.03, "rotation_down": 71.94, "downward_expansion": 89.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.347133, 0.360182, 0.380088, 0.39069 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.343, "trend_reference": 0.412083, "distance_from_trend": -0.167644, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.56163, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.389278, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.386142, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.313313, "excess_performance": -0.364549, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.167644, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020637, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.389278, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088503, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.223861, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.182618, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.313313, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.359135, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2968110, "relative_activity": 1.61064, "balance": 0.359135, "dry_up": 1.082503, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108484, "annualized_volatility": 0.521293, "from_high_reference": -0.530349, "from_low_reference": 0.055385 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.412083, "fair_value_reference": 0.56163, "structural_low": 0.3255, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.011444, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.527778, "median_excess_return": -0.021168, "regime_survival": 0.861111, "best_return": 0.296765, "worst_return": -0.266667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.123674, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.127968, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.404971, "worst_return": -0.383818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.197183, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.312544, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.153173, "worst_return": -0.470349, "sufficient": true }, 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.644342, "energy": 73.095637, "activity_lines": [ 0.3541, 0.371518, 0.387238, 0.399444 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.3585, "volume": 1723947, "typical_volume": 1977909.9, "trend": 0.416817, "fair_value": 0.565836, "relative_strength": -19.137738, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.297719, "energy": 66.268172, "activity_lines": [ 0.351967, 0.366664, 0.384398, 0.395453 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.343, "volume": 2968110, "typical_volume": 1842814.3, "trend": 0.412083, "fair_value": 0.56163, "relative_strength": -22.386142, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.302912, "energy": 65.737479, "activity_lines": [ 0.347133, 0.360182, 0.380088, 0.39069 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }