{ "ticker": { "uuid": "21ac86c2-702c-45b3-8bfa-2f5288aa356d", "symbol": "GIFT", "name": "RDE, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.421, "architecture_energy": 35.801, "architecture_maturity": 32.893, "architecture_confidence": 89.497, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.98, "rotation_up": 18.57, "upward_expansion": 8.21, "deceleration": 40.44, "rotation_down": 55.2, "downward_expansion": 81.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.883467, 0.906664, 0.93054, 0.941702 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.8775, "trend_reference": 0.96023, "distance_from_trend": -0.086156, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.307913, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.619786, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.532178, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.085938, "excess_performance": -0.273391, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.086156, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05613, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.619786, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053361, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.245322, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.163195, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.085938, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.178825, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1022439, "relative_activity": 2.254055, "balance": 2.178825, "dry_up": 0.902538, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.177339, "annualized_volatility": 0.790089, "from_high_reference": -0.319767, "from_low_reference": 0.187094 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.96023, "fair_value_reference": 2.307913, "structural_low": 0.7392, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.038356, "positive_rate": 0.235294, "directional_follow_through": 0.235294, "median_excess_return": -0.034938, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.744737, "worst_return": -0.175, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.111491, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.671053, "worst_return": -0.645238, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.108108, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.274125, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.418421, "worst_return": -0.8, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.6107, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.587367, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.311842, "worst_return": -0.764706, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.088023, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0275, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03481, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.314286, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.424157, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027778, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105263, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.220588, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.121622, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.271795, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.326612, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.113636, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 4.16, "volume": 81338, "typical_volume": 44083.2, "trend": 2.910333, "fair_value": 1.862092, "relative_strength": 43.065718, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 0.9125, "volume": 143269, "typical_volume": 445066.45, "trend": 0.985047, "fair_value": 2.369384, "relative_strength": -23.80396, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.842842, "energy": 13.9669, "activity_lines": [ 0.95254, 0.930362, 0.958814, 0.965656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.89, "volume": 195963, "typical_volume": 449692.5, "trend": 0.980047, "fair_value": 2.355858, "relative_strength": -21.962463, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.128743, "energy": 15.427162, "activity_lines": [ 0.93378, 0.925613, 0.952426, 0.959524 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.9, "volume": 110218, "typical_volume": 447832.9, "trend": 0.975047, "fair_value": 2.341596, "relative_strength": -19.440772, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.667779, "energy": 19.506668, "activity_lines": [ 0.920353, 0.921315, 0.947296, 0.954359 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.868, "volume": 308945, "typical_volume": 423289.8, "trend": 0.966647, "fair_value": 2.326006, "relative_strength": -22.125112, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.873737, "energy": 31.69619, "activity_lines": [ 0.895593, 0.912835, 0.938603, 0.947453 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.8775, "volume": 1022439, "typical_volume": 453599.8, "trend": 0.96023, "fair_value": 2.307913, "relative_strength": -24.532178, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.421485, "energy": 35.801449, "activity_lines": [ 0.883467, 0.906664, 0.93054, 0.941702 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }