{ "ticker": { "uuid": "21afa4b2-31fc-4a91-98fa-f06047d204f3", "symbol": "UGL", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST II PROSHARES ULTRA GOLD", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.511, "architecture_energy": 47.937, "architecture_maturity": 64.768, "architecture_confidence": 72.032, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.58, "rotation_up": 26.13, "upward_expansion": 19.24, "deceleration": 66.29, "rotation_down": 51.76, "downward_expansion": 73.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.416667, 46.256545, 49.911429, 53.848237 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 50.69, "trend_reference": 59.093, "distance_from_trend": -0.1422, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.475083, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.514261, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.547048, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.282316, "excess_performance": -0.407941, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.1422, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042558, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.514261, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.503013, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.17547, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.256658, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.282316, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.544562, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13372734, "relative_activity": 1.117422, "balance": 0.544562, "dry_up": 0.766821, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093487, "annualized_volatility": 0.4885, "from_high_reference": -0.43927, "from_low_reference": 0.475691 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 59.093, "fair_value_reference": 33.475083, "structural_low": 42.42, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.001076, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005734, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.131101, "worst_return": -0.10202, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.050407, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.011941, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.185823, "worst_return": -0.066768, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.106648, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.099371, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.197626, "worst_return": 0.074711, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.073782, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061198, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.228624, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071384, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.357129, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": 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"typical_volume": 12366760.2, "trend": 59.81, "fair_value": 33.052985, "relative_strength": -24.285019, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.302993, "energy": 72.225202, "activity_lines": [ 44.724667, 46.466727, 51.235667, 55.419183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.19, "volume": 10432119, "typical_volume": 12218483.65, "trend": 59.419667, "fair_value": 33.241751, "relative_strength": -25.455587, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.557489, "energy": 63.345889, "activity_lines": [ 44.456667, 45.662909, 50.199048, 54.411441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.69, "volume": 13372734, "typical_volume": 11967486.0, "trend": 59.093, "fair_value": 33.475083, "relative_strength": -17.547048, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.511024, "energy": 47.936896, "activity_lines": [ 46.416667, 46.256545, 49.911429, 53.848237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }