{ "ticker": { "uuid": "21b6ceb4-0aee-49bf-aa15-fda1f701d934", "symbol": "TRYP", "name": "HANetf ICAV - US Global Investors Travel UCITS ETF", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.708, "architecture_energy": 40.786, "architecture_maturity": 61.309, "architecture_confidence": 81.512, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.89, "rotation_up": 40.42, "upward_expansion": 68.42, "deceleration": 85.49, "rotation_down": 27.19, "downward_expansion": 18.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.346407, 9.384384, 9.102757, 8.928641 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.5947, "trend_reference": 8.791803, "distance_from_trend": 0.091323, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.531728, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.273904, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.705557, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.116455, "excess_performance": 0.063143, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.091323, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028385, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.273904, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102296, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.037056, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02534, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.116455, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.262928, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2, "relative_activity": 0.000454, "balance": 5.262928, "dry_up": 1.524991, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032729, "annualized_volatility": 0.227665, "from_high_reference": -0.017752, "from_low_reference": 0.214827 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.791803, "fair_value_reference": 7.531728, "structural_low": 7.961, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.002512, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.011606, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.060958, "worst_return": -0.109651, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.040296, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.049038, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.09425, "worst_return": -0.217363, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.067099, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.000773, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.117225, "worst_return": -0.051146, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.012601, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.025015, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.041288, "worst_return": -0.016085, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044649, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023281, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008339, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.070035, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038772, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027817, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059226, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028872, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020524, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.086684, "active": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 5232.1, "trend": 8.74818, "fair_value": 7.456335, "relative_strength": 8.374459, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.351955, "energy": 88.486532, "activity_lines": [ 9.575027, 9.263218, 8.884239, 8.793982 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.3429, "volume": 70, "typical_volume": 5180.9, "trend": 8.76495, "fair_value": 7.475263, "relative_strength": 5.688712, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.374968, "energy": 85.347169, "activity_lines": [ 9.532513, 9.325931, 8.948096, 8.832351 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.8704, "volume": 9852, "typical_volume": 4106.05, "trend": 8.76597, "fair_value": 7.490541, "relative_strength": -0.082928, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.638209, "energy": 50.382266, "activity_lines": [ 9.307393, 9.288002, 8.96491, 8.839154 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.341, "volume": 16932, "typical_volume": 4881.65, "trend": 8.782677, "fair_value": 7.51027, "relative_strength": 3.496488, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.389332, "energy": 36.681031, "activity_lines": [ 9.27038, 9.322229, 9.024606, 8.876253 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.5947, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 4402.65, "trend": 8.791803, "fair_value": 7.531728, "relative_strength": 3.705557, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.70785, "energy": 40.785671, "activity_lines": [ 9.346407, 9.384384, 9.102757, 8.928641 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }