{ "ticker": { "uuid": "21c24808-6bd5-4463-bb28-cd191a5dba5b", "symbol": "B1TI34", "name": "British American Tobacco p.l.c.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 71.713, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.765, "architecture_energy": 8.888, "architecture_maturity": 30.227, "architecture_confidence": 75.382, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.38, "rotation_up": 30.62, "upward_expansion": 54.16, "deceleration": 79.54, "rotation_down": 25.58, "downward_expansion": 20.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 61.666666, 61.921774, 61.792187, 61.547357 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 60.759998, "trend_reference": 61.42594, "distance_from_trend": -0.010841, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.475346, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.397574, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.384502, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.049998, "excess_performance": 0.00705, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010841, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013424, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.397574, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016202, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023845, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.129174, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.049998, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.870957, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7986, "relative_activity": 1.714047, "balance": 0.870957, "dry_up": 1.115493, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067527, "annualized_volatility": 0.345677, "from_high_reference": -0.103923, "from_low_reference": 0.162049 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.42594, "fair_value_reference": 43.475346, "structural_low": 55.040001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.017208, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.007296, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.058528, "worst_return": -0.073443, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.046083, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.052715, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.146787, "worst_return": -0.09421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.00338, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.056169, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.526917, "worst_return": -0.176368, "sufficient": 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"relative_strength": -2.203953, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.974636, "energy": 20.43211, "activity_lines": [ 62.570192, 62.296872, 61.798957, 61.563908 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 61.639999, "volume": 830, "typical_volume": 4667.15, "trend": 61.336838, "fair_value": 43.251064, "relative_strength": -4.461371, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.87536, "energy": 16.012972, "activity_lines": [ 62.186771, 62.155505, 61.834237, 61.584572 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.759998, "volume": 7986, "typical_volume": 4659.15, "trend": 61.42594, "fair_value": 43.475346, "relative_strength": -2.384502, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.765127, "energy": 8.888402, "activity_lines": [ 61.666666, 61.921774, 61.792187, 61.547357 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }