{ "ticker": { "uuid": "21c2f257-46b2-4700-b3b5-402a4920cd0d", "symbol": "VJPN", "name": "Vanguard FTSE Japan UCITS ETF USD Distributing", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.167, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.778, "architecture_energy": 25.18, "architecture_maturity": 57.759, "architecture_confidence": 86.175, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.42, "rotation_up": 30.73, "upward_expansion": 57.22, "deceleration": 88.14, "rotation_down": 30.65, "downward_expansion": 20.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.797999, 37.929672, 37.589955, 37.093021 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 38.862499, "trend_reference": 36.487026, "distance_from_trend": 0.065105, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.643204, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.311009, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.425297, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.089606, "excess_performance": 0.038371, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065105, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046891, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.311009, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025294, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.034253, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032763, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.089606, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.85831, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 222969, "relative_activity": 1.169346, "balance": 0.85831, "dry_up": 1.318632, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033035, "annualized_volatility": 0.217231, "from_high_reference": -0.0167, "from_low_reference": 0.271936 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.487026, "fair_value_reference": 29.643204, "structural_low": 33.122501, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.005646, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009787, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.061036, "worst_return": -0.087285, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.002436, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.018824, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.137341, "worst_return": -0.023278, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.034607, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001866, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.111215, "worst_return": -0.090847, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.019681, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.00292, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018479, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068576, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023065, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.102465, "energy": 30.163654, "activity_lines": [ 37.862, 37.929243, 37.243679, 36.773007 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.4175, "volume": 253589, "typical_volume": 198983.6, "trend": 36.191232, "fair_value": 29.466587, "relative_strength": 1.326183, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.886445, "energy": 22.953392, "activity_lines": [ 37.585333, 37.854022, 37.32972, 36.862153 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.244999, "volume": 204120, "typical_volume": 191365.5, "trend": 36.337802, "fair_value": 29.54933, "relative_strength": -0.467564, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.972132, "energy": 20.983749, "activity_lines": [ 37.384833, 37.746108, 37.389057, 36.930138 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.862499, "volume": 222969, "typical_volume": 190678.35, "trend": 36.487026, "fair_value": 29.643204, "relative_strength": 3.425297, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.778211, "energy": 25.180037, "activity_lines": [ 37.797999, 37.929672, 37.589955, 37.093021 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }