{ "ticker": { "uuid": "21c93221-f91e-4625-8c0a-42fe8b2c32f3", "symbol": "BLS", "name": "Hotung Investment Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.964, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.426, "architecture_energy": 33.644, "architecture_maturity": 64.056, "architecture_confidence": 77.81, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.67, "rotation_up": 29.11, "upward_expansion": 59.51, "deceleration": 91.03, "rotation_down": 27.88, "downward_expansion": 23.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.608667, 1.619636, 1.594788, 1.545415 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.61, "trend_reference": 1.479512, "distance_from_trend": 0.088197, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.287709, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.250282, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.282166, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.206928, "excess_performance": 0.052093, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088197, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07501, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.250282, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006618, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032822, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109894, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.206928, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.769823, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56700, "relative_activity": 0.353877, "balance": 0.769823, "dry_up": 0.494617, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030766, "annualized_volatility": 0.169932, "from_high_reference": -0.041667, "from_low_reference": 0.298362 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.479512, "fair_value_reference": 1.287709, "structural_low": 1.315176, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.011696, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.010837, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.096045, "worst_return": -0.018216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.044445, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.006117, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.079096, "worst_return": -0.021849, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.066725, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.074736, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.214689, "worst_return": -0.129395, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.144024, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.022725, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.191244, "worst_return": -0.025967, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01923, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029508, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055172, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.030075, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043165, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007142, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.051044, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051852, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034483, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021583, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.174616, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.288093, "volume": 24600, "typical_volume": 46470.0, "trend": 1.314983, "fair_value": 1.253475, "relative_strength": 1.253452, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.405194, "energy": 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"up", "direction": 63.553407, "energy": 59.326374, "activity_lines": [ 1.631333, 1.626531, 1.57052, 1.516982 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.61, "volume": 66300, "typical_volume": 161440.0, "trend": 1.459877, "fair_value": 1.28349, "relative_strength": -2.038285, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.869408, "energy": 48.448851, "activity_lines": [ 1.621333, 1.624844, 1.580225, 1.527302 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.6, "volume": 128200, "typical_volume": 163030.0, "trend": 1.469371, "fair_value": 1.285698, "relative_strength": -2.992708, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.401708, "energy": 37.405376, "activity_lines": [ 1.612, 1.621273, 1.587664, 1.536342 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.61, "volume": 56700, "typical_volume": 160225.0, "trend": 1.479512, "fair_value": 1.287709, "relative_strength": -3.282166, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.425927, "energy": 33.644092, "activity_lines": [ 1.608667, 1.619636, 1.594788, 1.545415 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }