{ "ticker": { "uuid": "21cb6a99-92f1-4d05-b06c-f6466c361526", "symbol": "INV", "name": "Innventure, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.414, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -27.659, "architecture_energy": 59.001, "architecture_maturity": 23.134, "architecture_confidence": 82.073, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.52, "rotation_up": 14.41, "upward_expansion": 27.74, "deceleration": 49.19, "rotation_down": 71.48, "downward_expansion": 57.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.365, 4.012364, 4.803071, 4.755043 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.435, "trend_reference": 4.514833, "distance_from_trend": -0.239175, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.349433, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.459007, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.908194, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.080189, "excess_performance": -0.107265, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.239175, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001143, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.459007, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.525209, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.339082, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.600526, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.080189, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.44197, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5882708, "relative_activity": 0.59749, "balance": 0.44197, "dry_up": 0.893186, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.368655, "annualized_volatility": 1.162208, "from_high_reference": -0.562977, "from_low_reference": 0.455508 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.514833, "fair_value_reference": 6.349433, "structural_low": 2.62, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.775294, "energy": 29.304689, "activity_lines": [ 4.516, 5.067818, 5.359214, 5.026247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.89, "volume": 11159691, "typical_volume": 10017019.25, "trend": 4.581667, "fair_value": 6.413053, "relative_strength": -42.326805, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.056432, "energy": 52.430601, "activity_lines": [ 3.832, 4.595818, 5.145167, 4.914161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.22, "volume": 7543144, "typical_volume": 10099305.75, "trend": 4.539667, "fair_value": 6.379792, "relative_strength": -35.516481, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.030706, "energy": 58.242435, "activity_lines": [ 3.507333, 4.253455, 4.962929, 4.826312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.435, "volume": 5882708, "typical_volume": 9845694.1, "trend": 4.514833, "fair_value": 6.349433, "relative_strength": -33.908194, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.658705, "energy": 59.001444, "activity_lines": [ 3.365, 4.012364, 4.803071, 4.755043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }