{ "ticker": { "uuid": "21cddc7c-5f82-46da-8ec5-50430fe50508", "symbol": "MARZ", "name": "TRUESHARES STRUCTURED OUTCOME (MARCH) ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 65.211, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.972, "architecture_energy": 60.387, "architecture_maturity": 46.608, "architecture_confidence": 80.405, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.84, "rotation_up": 57.08, "upward_expansion": 82.41, "deceleration": 58.81, "rotation_down": 26.43, "downward_expansion": 9.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.9622, 36.779813, 36.505394, 35.945382 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 37.681, "trend_reference": 35.327657, "distance_from_trend": 0.066615, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.461703, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.236996, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.057906, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.089106, "excess_performance": -0.036519, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066615, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023793, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.236996, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004227, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.030579, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002642, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.089106, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.280251, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33279, "relative_activity": 1.476488, "balance": 1.280251, "dry_up": 0.436981, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016209, "annualized_volatility": 0.110444, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.167632 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.327657, "fair_value_reference": 30.461703, "structural_low": 32.2713, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.013832, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.004387, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.046359, "worst_return": -0.032549, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.036067, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.012827, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.096626, "worst_return": -0.049237, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.071088, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.024394, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.125989, "worst_return": 0.048017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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}, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 36.996, "volume": 3909, "typical_volume": 24562.15, "trend": 35.01482, "fair_value": 30.147757, "relative_strength": -2.89191, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.098304, "energy": 56.064026, "activity_lines": [ 36.637533, 36.597987, 35.988799, 35.504684 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.5901, "volume": 1059, "typical_volume": 24097.7, "trend": 35.09359, "fair_value": 30.224212, "relative_strength": -2.35906, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.457239, "energy": 49.841224, "activity_lines": [ 36.640373, 36.604525, 36.1137, 35.606315 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.3494, "volume": 2350, "typical_volume": 23237.1, "trend": 35.150803, "fair_value": 30.297863, "relative_strength": -2.342875, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.135095, "energy": 45.172263, "activity_lines": [ 36.555693, 36.5613, 36.204554, 35.687335 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.7009, "volume": 2709, "typical_volume": 21020.15, "trend": 35.231367, "fair_value": 30.376474, "relative_strength": -2.36773, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.778848, "energy": 47.829693, "activity_lines": [ 36.61696, 36.582289, 36.316298, 35.787342 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.681, "volume": 33279, "typical_volume": 22539.3, "trend": 35.327657, "fair_value": 30.461703, "relative_strength": -3.057906, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.971626, "energy": 60.387073, "activity_lines": [ 36.9622, 36.779813, 36.505394, 35.945382 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }