{ "ticker": { "uuid": "21d3d257-0816-4893-8acf-5513006f3867", "symbol": "000988", "name": "HGTECH Company Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -27.503, "architecture_energy": 41.277, "architecture_maturity": 53.0, "architecture_confidence": 45.121, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.14, "rotation_up": 14.03, "upward_expansion": 18.09, "deceleration": 70.78, "rotation_down": 70.44, "downward_expansion": 45.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 108.824001, 126.667799, 134.270882, 129.083404 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 106.599998, "trend_reference": 118.447025, "distance_from_trend": -0.10002, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 56.692568, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.880317, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.13753, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.377083, "excess_performance": 0.369683, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.10002, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.215048, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.880317, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.967958, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.051375, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.450897, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.377083, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.753096, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 369541358, "relative_activity": 1.121899, "balance": 0.753096, "dry_up": 0.994172, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.213681, "annualized_volatility": 0.800129, "from_high_reference": -0.412899, "from_low_reference": 1.186667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 118.447025, "fair_value_reference": 56.692568, "structural_low": 72.919998, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.02933, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.029463, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.16537, "worst_return": -0.10018, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.045208, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.007727, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.20569, "worst_return": -0.157428, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.105539, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.061948, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.041484, "worst_return": -0.178988, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055842, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0624, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023981, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.129421, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.812855, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024671, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.109719, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.199253, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.024743, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014696, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 36.078987, "volume": 315745104, "typical_volume": 405886297.9, "trend": 28.27368, "fair_value": 23.749069, "relative_strength": 50.05333, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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115.504003, 133.309736, 136.7536, 129.789083 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 106.599998, "volume": 369541358, "typical_volume": 329389169.25, "trend": 118.447025, "fair_value": 56.692568, "relative_strength": 5.13753, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.503012, "energy": 41.277401, "activity_lines": [ 108.824001, 126.667799, 134.270882, 129.083404 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }