{ "ticker": { "uuid": "21d5c7cd-d0ce-47e8-b880-ef20e3ecf0ef", "symbol": "WSRIA", "name": "UBS MSCI World Socially Responsible UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.887, "architecture_energy": 58.764, "architecture_maturity": 64.594, "architecture_confidence": 64.964, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.5, "rotation_up": 48.66, "upward_expansion": 72.22, "deceleration": 85.5, "rotation_down": 27.81, "downward_expansion": 22.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.442, 24.451546, 23.986048, 23.420549 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.98, "trend_reference": 22.814333, "distance_from_trend": 0.094926, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.24624, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.233809, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.706082, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.150887, "excess_performance": -0.020005, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.094926, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041949, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.233809, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059863, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037061, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016041, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.150887, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.30346, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24406, "relative_activity": 0.723371, "balance": 1.30346, "dry_up": 1.512422, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019215, "annualized_volatility": 0.12615, "from_high_reference": -0.017479, "from_low_reference": 0.22421 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.814333, "fair_value_reference": 20.24624, "structural_low": 20.405001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.008852, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.016148, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.058707, "worst_return": -0.06482, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.005132, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.025973, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.124644, "worst_return": -0.185379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.088305, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.010843, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.138685, "worst_return": -0.127464, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008376, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.036438, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060664, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003887, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025998, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011577, "active": false }, { 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24.547667, 24.338364, 23.588881, 23.084097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.145, "volume": 65031, "typical_volume": 33920.3, "trend": 22.6435, "fair_value": 20.140611, "relative_strength": -3.768981, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.786744, "energy": 64.999542, "activity_lines": [ 24.408667, 24.349364, 23.710405, 23.185946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.02, "volume": 9560, "typical_volume": 34121.75, "trend": 22.720167, "fair_value": 20.189419, "relative_strength": -4.76754, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.659338, "energy": 52.717151, "activity_lines": [ 24.251, 24.318091, 23.808857, 23.274753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.98, "volume": 24406, "typical_volume": 33739.25, "trend": 22.814333, "fair_value": 20.24624, "relative_strength": -3.706082, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.886975, "energy": 58.764494, "activity_lines": [ 24.442, 24.451546, 23.986048, 23.420549 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }