{ "ticker": { "uuid": "21dde7ab-c05d-43fc-bf6e-dad7dffda097", "symbol": "TCH-F20", "name": "Tachlit Index Sal Ltd. - Tachlit SAL (40) TEL DIV", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.523, "architecture_energy": 66.835, "architecture_maturity": 97.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.031, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.56, "rotation_up": 29.99, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 52.86, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.208667, 44.397091, 1042.775429, 1931.395355 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 43.41, "trend_reference": 2961.86, "distance_from_trend": -0.985344, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3033.639744, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.98569, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.891561, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.990551, "excess_performance": -1.019451, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.985344, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.326722, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.98569, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.55334, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988916, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.891371, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.990551, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.278992, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9563, "relative_activity": 0.865262, "balance": 0.278992, "dry_up": 0.756821, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 8.975741, "annualized_volatility": 6.348799, "from_high_reference": -0.991269, "from_low_reference": 0.012832 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2961.86, "fair_value_reference": 3033.639744, "structural_low": 42.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.001222, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.00239, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.063997, "worst_return": -0.104963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.062587, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.025374, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.10724, "worst_return": -0.115062, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.06337, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017111, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.279116, "worst_return": -0.119938, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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2358.743381, 3015.851204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 44.02, "volume": 20797, "typical_volume": 14107.7, "trend": 3551.943, "fair_value": 3095.559551, "relative_strength": -98.955758, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.675443, "energy": 86.0036, "activity_lines": [ 44.381333, 553.060727, 2051.644, 2780.27557 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 44.65, "volume": 5464, "typical_volume": 12501.45, "trend": 3406.364667, "fair_value": 3079.691923, "relative_strength": -98.93669, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.27756, "energy": 68.431144, "activity_lines": [ 44.368667, 296.01, 1766.733095, 2553.998602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.04, "volume": 5128, "typical_volume": 11672.45, "trend": 3262.199333, "fair_value": 3064.551154, "relative_strength": -98.92889, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.831571, "energy": 67.690623, "activity_lines": [ 44.626667, 128.618364, 1503.032429, 2337.138946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.41, "volume": 13303, "typical_volume": 11406.5, "trend": 3114.646333, "fair_value": 3049.297372, "relative_strength": -98.889592, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.712741, "energy": 67.373528, "activity_lines": [ 44.632667, 44.711455, 1262.276333, 2129.539634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.41, "volume": 9563, "typical_volume": 11052.15, "trend": 2961.86, "fair_value": 3033.639744, "relative_strength": -98.891561, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.522665, "energy": 66.834729, "activity_lines": [ 44.208667, 44.397091, 1042.775429, 1931.395355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }