{ "ticker": { "uuid": "21de71f9-57f7-43be-b6cc-b4f2fe07a7ab", "symbol": "NVDC34", "name": "NVIDIA Corporation", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 90.94, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.056, "architecture_energy": 33.945, "architecture_maturity": 13.652, "architecture_confidence": 76.85, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.19, "rotation_up": 48.96, "upward_expansion": 74.01, "deceleration": 59.12, "rotation_down": 22.18, "downward_expansion": 5.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.238, 21.967636, 21.891142, 21.468546 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 23.549999, "trend_reference": 21.014665, "distance_from_trend": 0.120646, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.932511, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.577096, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.690022, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.16186, "excess_performance": 0.218908, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.120646, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018533, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.577096, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049585, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.0869, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.148637, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.16186, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.849947, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26113753, "relative_activity": 1.529853, "balance": 0.849947, "dry_up": 1.511962, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064497, "annualized_volatility": 0.350116, "from_high_reference": -0.040349, "from_low_reference": 0.31009 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.014665, "fair_value_reference": 14.932511, "structural_low": 17.97587, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.024175, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.003616, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.404985, "worst_return": -0.245747, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.034997, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.034836, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.769772, "worst_return": -0.1215, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.128253, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.169171, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.321324, "worst_return": 0.06239, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.158131, "energy": 19.79552, "activity_lines": [ 21.722667, 21.912489, 21.544916, 21.180873 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.639999, "volume": 25398853, "typical_volume": 16100730.75, "trend": 20.932917, "fair_value": 14.591323, "relative_strength": -1.913459, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.368943, "energy": 17.165388, "activity_lines": [ 21.698667, 21.826547, 21.609989, 21.228191 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.780001, "volume": 22880109, "typical_volume": 16211645.4, "trend": 20.931278, "fair_value": 14.701448, "relative_strength": -1.093881, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.217629, "energy": 17.108001, "activity_lines": [ 21.722667, 21.770102, 21.675868, 21.282842 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.18, "volume": 28840766, "typical_volume": 16680610.05, "trend": 20.920305, "fair_value": 14.808355, "relative_strength": -5.483906, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.9863, "energy": 11.713092, "activity_lines": [ 21.601333, 21.641671, 21.6736, 21.298889 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.549999, "volume": 26113753, "typical_volume": 17069457.65, "trend": 21.014665, "fair_value": 14.932511, "relative_strength": 8.690022, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.056395, "energy": 33.944822, "activity_lines": [ 22.238, 21.967636, 21.891142, 21.468546 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }