{ "ticker": { "uuid": "21df2f99-0d3b-42a2-abf9-312c0743a6a0", "symbol": "XLPE", "name": "Xtrackers LPX Private Equity Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 56.78, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 56.848, "architecture_energy": 50.769, "architecture_maturity": 8.666, "architecture_confidence": 78.855, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.66, "rotation_up": 71.16, "upward_expansion": 45.06, "deceleration": 36.65, "rotation_down": 16.12, "downward_expansion": 17.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 131.316, 128.378182, 127.686763, 127.493291 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 137.119995, "trend_reference": 129.562668, "distance_from_trend": 0.05833, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 134.746058, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.017618, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.330629, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.021454, "excess_performance": -0.061429, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05833, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046085, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.017618, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021554, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103306, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014639, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.021454, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.365577, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 61, "relative_activity": 0.081371, "balance": 6.365577, "dry_up": 3.129794, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028386, "annualized_volatility": 0.253213, "from_high_reference": -0.139882, "from_low_reference": 0.181865 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 129.562668, "fair_value_reference": 134.746058, "structural_low": 116.019997, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.023138, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.012932, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.14196, "worst_return": -0.136636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.014172, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003235, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.072187, "worst_return": -0.19794, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.015522, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.065156, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.011383, "worst_return": -0.173198, "sufficient": false }, { 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134.755334, "fair_value": 133.307147, "relative_strength": -17.307975, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.235926, "energy": 33.56777, "activity_lines": [ 126.750668, 127.976002, 127.044669, 130.279399 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 124.699997, "volume": 48, "typical_volume": 814.2, "trend": 134.413334, "fair_value": 133.51234, "relative_strength": -18.408759, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.526679, "energy": 46.91176, "activity_lines": [ 125.897333, 127.301455, 126.697716, 129.630668 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 120.120003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 438.5, "trend": 133.639334, "fair_value": 133.67016, "relative_strength": -23.042574, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.112556, "energy": 73.034395, "activity_lines": [ 123.757334, 125.758546, 126.016382, 128.708517 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 123.639999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 424.15, "trend": 132.867334, "fair_value": 133.86016, "relative_strength": -21.58204, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.58871, "energy": 63.84557, "activity_lines": [ 123.317333, 125.125455, 125.737525, 128.063399 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 125.059998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 407.05, "trend": 132.083334, "fair_value": 134.013493, "relative_strength": -18.997778, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.044133, "energy": 50.541329, "activity_lines": [ 123.738666, 124.844727, 125.658668, 127.5597 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 129.240005, "volume": 7808, "typical_volume": 764.55, "trend": 131.428001, "fair_value": 134.181314, "relative_strength": -16.258911, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.663599, "energy": 25.509517, "activity_lines": [ 125.486668, 125.406546, 126.030573, 127.376259 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 126.760002, "volume": 116, "typical_volume": 770.35, "trend": 130.683334, "fair_value": 134.332596, "relative_strength": -17.076017, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.299146, "energy": 16.667998, "activity_lines": [ 126.222668, 125.561819, 126.169906, 127.075098 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 130.080002, "volume": 1400, "typical_volume": 830.5, "trend": 130.034668, "fair_value": 134.511442, "relative_strength": -14.35655, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.907537, "energy": 17.030603, "activity_lines": [ 127.928002, 126.348728, 126.622382, 127.036173 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 137.119995, "volume": 61, "typical_volume": 749.65, "trend": 129.562668, "fair_value": 134.746058, "relative_strength": -10.330629, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 56.84837, "energy": 50.769334, "activity_lines": [ 131.316, 128.378182, 127.686763, 127.493291 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }