{ "ticker": { "uuid": "21e64201-bd04-45bb-a164-8ca53f8d208c", "symbol": "VAR", "name": "Variscan Mines Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.784, "architecture_energy": 54.07, "architecture_maturity": 39.195, "architecture_confidence": 91.948, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 19.95, "upward_expansion": 7.99, "deceleration": 50.97, "rotation_down": 60.6, "downward_expansion": 81.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.003767, 0.004036, 0.004736, 0.005401 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.0035, "trend_reference": 0.006383, "distance_from_trend": -0.451697, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.007835, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.553297, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -45.089774, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.5625, "excess_performance": -0.626206, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.451697, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065854, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.553297, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.298727, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.450898, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.457244, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.5625, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.366904, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25274727, "relative_activity": 2.761115, "balance": 0.366904, "dry_up": 2.016429, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.318681, "annualized_volatility": 0.935543, "from_high_reference": -0.708333, "from_low_reference": 0.75 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.006383, "fair_value_reference": 0.007835, "structural_low": 0.002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.243902, "directional_follow_through": 0.487805, "median_excess_return": -0.04089, "regime_survival": 0.829268, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.243243, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.142857, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.14933, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.428571, "worst_return": -0.466667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.288889, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.281356, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.428571, "worst_return": -0.482759, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.039517, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.357143, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.5, 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0.004533, 0.004973, 0.005712, 0.006274 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.0045, "volume": 1984157, "typical_volume": 6803554.8, "trend": 0.00665, "fair_value": 0.008111, "relative_strength": -28.566099, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.438536, "energy": 69.689253, "activity_lines": [ 0.004433, 0.004809, 0.005531, 0.006132 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.004, "volume": 3006491, "typical_volume": 6666980.5, "trend": 0.006617, "fair_value": 0.00804, "relative_strength": -35.841685, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.837644, "energy": 68.880164, "activity_lines": [ 0.004267, 0.0046, 0.005319, 0.005961 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0035, "volume": 13025726, "typical_volume": 7055747.75, "trend": 0.006567, "fair_value": 0.007967, "relative_strength": -43.07406, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.011978, "energy": 71.257825, "activity_lines": [ 0.003967, 0.004345, 0.005083, 0.00576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.004, "volume": 32525100, "typical_volume": 8682002.75, "trend": 0.0065, "fair_value": 0.007909, "relative_strength": -35.785111, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.976577, "energy": 52.551496, "activity_lines": [ 0.003933, 0.004227, 0.004921, 0.005595 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0035, "volume": 25274727, "typical_volume": 9153810.45, "trend": 0.006383, "fair_value": 0.007835, "relative_strength": -45.089774, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.78365, "energy": 54.06998, "activity_lines": [ 0.003767, 0.004036, 0.004736, 0.005401 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }