{ "ticker": { "uuid": "21ec0466-b069-4c59-85af-7b0f781e585f", "symbol": "OP5E", "name": "OSSIAM BLOOMBERG JAPAN PAB NR", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.381, "architecture_energy": 46.001, "architecture_maturity": 65.111, "architecture_confidence": 81.343, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.69, "rotation_up": 42.89, "upward_expansion": 69.19, "deceleration": 85.5, "rotation_down": 27.67, "downward_expansion": 19.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 185.169613, 185.502214, 181.730368, 177.534698 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 189.880005, "trend_reference": 172.401176, "distance_from_trend": 0.101385, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 144.367835, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.315251, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.788522, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.165288, "excess_performance": 0.111976, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.101385, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064366, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.315251, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07213, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.087885, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034117, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.165288, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.288815, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2338, "relative_activity": 1.313262, "balance": 1.288815, "dry_up": 0.994355, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026341, "annualized_volatility": 0.189519, "from_high_reference": -0.001035, "from_low_reference": 0.344766 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 172.401176, "fair_value_reference": 144.367835, "structural_low": 154.218704, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.030127, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.027443, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.043401, "worst_return": -0.012767, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.039784, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.088042, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.177622, "worst_return": 0.034787, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.057766, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.130798, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.221863, "worst_return": -0.002658, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.000876, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01751, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033652, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034762, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.026088, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", 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170.904981, 167.879172 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 189.363205, "volume": 1366, "typical_volume": 1499.95, "trend": 164.821952, "fair_value": 141.472537, "relative_strength": 15.455926, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.808223, "energy": 95.09281, "activity_lines": [ 182.714847, 178.553092, 172.941657, 169.537092 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 186.812195, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 1464.1, "trend": 165.958305, "fair_value": 141.886998, "relative_strength": 13.920074, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.927318, "energy": 90.959098, "activity_lines": [ 184.714332, 180.634526, 174.585806, 170.955817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 189.292206, "volume": 81, "typical_volume": 1468.15, "trend": 167.118046, "fair_value": 142.324556, "relative_strength": 13.283282, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.292221, "energy": 92.910087, "activity_lines": [ 186.818808, 182.876165, 176.352503, 172.46123 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 188.760803, "volume": 2398, "typical_volume": 1584.85, "trend": 168.260072, "fair_value": 142.764642, "relative_strength": 14.673052, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.681392, "energy": 89.947129, "activity_lines": [ 188.038969, 184.584768, 177.943135, 173.857537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 180.514801, "volume": 1061, "typical_volume": 1609.7, "trend": 169.180856, "fair_value": 143.141313, "relative_strength": 9.220349, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.807381, "energy": 64.9933, "activity_lines": [ 185.898762, 184.417677, 178.663096, 174.648165 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 183.260193, "volume": 1428, "typical_volume": 1669.85, "trend": 170.193152, "fair_value": 143.537837, "relative_strength": 9.997396, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.490194, "energy": 57.982775, "activity_lines": [ 184.669279, 184.617507, 179.607741, 175.556509 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 182.143295, "volume": 2254, "typical_volume": 1775.95, "trend": 171.168219, "fair_value": 143.920751, "relative_strength": 7.239202, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.036971, "energy": 40.671966, "activity_lines": [ 183.474364, 184.41249, 180.349539, 176.327486 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 189.880005, "volume": 2338, "typical_volume": 1780.3, "trend": 172.401176, "fair_value": 144.367835, "relative_strength": 8.788522, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.380891, "energy": 46.000712, "activity_lines": [ 185.169613, 185.502214, 181.730368, 177.534698 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }