{ "ticker": { "uuid": "21ecfb4b-03be-4bf4-bfb7-3768e101caae", "symbol": "543", "name": "Noel Gifts International Ltd", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.916, "architecture_energy": 21.084, "architecture_maturity": 25.508, "architecture_confidence": 66.488, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.91, "rotation_up": 12.62, "upward_expansion": 22.28, "deceleration": 58.45, "rotation_down": 54.7, "downward_expansion": 55.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.1946, 0.195727, 0.195571, 0.195376 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.192, "trend_reference": 0.197567, "distance_from_trend": -0.028176, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.200297, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.041423, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.522936, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.106977, "excess_performance": -0.261812, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028176, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029156, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.041423, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065695, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.225229, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09102, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.106977, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.20398, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 65900, "relative_activity": 2.618196, "balance": 0.20398, "dry_up": 1.614025, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028846, "annualized_volatility": 0.429078, "from_high_reference": -0.232, "from_low_reference": 0.129412 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.197567, "fair_value_reference": 0.200297, "structural_low": 0.17, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.004904, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.175004, "worst_return": -0.046511, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.075, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.030758, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.1, "worst_return": -0.022727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.051286, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.070924, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.387852, "worst_return": -0.045454, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.104511, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.103085, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.549798, "worst_return": -0.05, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.035087, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.135596, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039562, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02381, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.046512, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02381, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02381, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02381, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.093023, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.132445, "volume": 11200, "typical_volume": 78115.0, "trend": 0.137836, "fair_value": 0.125703, "relative_strength": -0.402021, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", 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"volume": 0, "typical_volume": 31375.0, "trend": 0.1999, "fair_value": 0.198706, "relative_strength": -18.958056, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.18947, "energy": 14.205995, "activity_lines": [ 0.197467, 0.197582, 0.19489, 0.196445 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.198, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 21560.0, "trend": 0.1995, "fair_value": 0.199122, "relative_strength": -19.05413, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.67393, "energy": 14.444126, "activity_lines": [ 0.198, 0.197545, 0.195286, 0.196323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.195, "volume": 19600, "typical_volume": 20505.0, "trend": 0.198833, "fair_value": 0.199518, "relative_strength": -20.83235, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.511329, "energy": 13.52007, "activity_lines": [ 0.197, 0.197, 0.195452, 0.196032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.195, "volume": 77000, "typical_volume": 22535.0, "trend": 0.198333, "fair_value": 0.199919, "relative_strength": -20.847753, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.341028, "energy": 13.100198, "activity_lines": [ 0.1962, 0.196545, 0.195643, 0.195785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.192, "volume": 65900, "typical_volume": 25170.0, "trend": 0.197567, "fair_value": 0.200297, "relative_strength": -22.522936, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.915504, "energy": 21.084351, "activity_lines": [ 0.1946, 0.195727, 0.195571, 0.195376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }