{ "ticker": { "uuid": "21ef13c5-7fec-4b36-bada-23a3fd3eb9e1", "symbol": "3111", "name": "E FUND MANAGEMENT(HK) CO LIMITED - MSCI CHINA A50 CONNECT ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.785, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.102, "architecture_energy": 25.638, "architecture_maturity": 43.974, "architecture_confidence": 91.709, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.38, "rotation_up": 34.22, "upward_expansion": 62.3, "deceleration": 93.6, "rotation_down": 28.66, "downward_expansion": 13.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.288533, 3.2864, 3.280162, 3.226912 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.34, "trend_reference": 3.155867, "distance_from_trend": 0.058346, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.417679, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.38149, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.101715, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.126856, "excess_performance": 0.160437, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.058346, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038433, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.38149, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034281, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.101017, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041046, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.126856, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.041041, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 912550, "relative_activity": 0.668068, "balance": 1.041041, "dry_up": 1.689665, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038185, "annualized_volatility": 0.155396, "from_high_reference": -0.026239, "from_low_reference": 0.366612 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.155867, "fair_value_reference": 2.417679, "structural_low": 2.846, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.00364, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.021176, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.07973, "worst_return": -0.044402, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.043676, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.050199, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.091823, "worst_return": -0.037438, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.057856, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.085668, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.0867, "worst_return": 0.029012, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.118227, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.186954, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.118227, "worst_return": 0.118227, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025641, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024631, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02495, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.169681, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068652, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024568, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010036, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053322, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019178, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013974, "active": false }, { "regime": 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3.308655, 3.241429, 3.18052 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.27, "volume": 2358000, "typical_volume": 1094223.5, "trend": 3.1206, "fair_value": 2.389987, "relative_strength": 16.927092, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.49278, "energy": 34.187353, "activity_lines": [ 3.2932, 3.303018, 3.251352, 3.190856 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.174, "volume": 3943410, "typical_volume": 1251688.5, "trend": 3.128533, "fair_value": 2.396603, "relative_strength": 11.099997, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.102308, "energy": 21.439744, "activity_lines": [ 3.2484, 3.279345, 3.250771, 3.194301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.31, "volume": 2861600, "typical_volume": 1346918.5, "trend": 3.1392, "fair_value": 2.403487, "relative_strength": 13.317185, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.460974, "energy": 21.247, "activity_lines": [ 3.258133, 3.282473, 3.262381, 3.206009 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.27, "volume": 1514460, "typical_volume": 1346511.5, "trend": 3.1468, "fair_value": 2.410103, "relative_strength": 7.447719, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.642816, "energy": 16.23438, "activity_lines": [ 3.2616, 3.278182, 3.26861, 3.214447 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.34, "volume": 912550, "typical_volume": 1365954.0, "trend": 3.155867, "fair_value": 2.417679, "relative_strength": 10.101715, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.102202, "energy": 25.637609, "activity_lines": [ 3.288533, 3.2864, 3.280162, 3.226912 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }