{ "ticker": { "uuid": "21f51b4b-7410-4a6c-98a4-091895255a20", "symbol": "7816", "name": "RITWIN", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -87.853, "architecture_energy": 95.094, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.222, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 8.1, "upward_expansion": 21.99, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 88.47, "downward_expansion": 99.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.58, 50.276364, 56.719524, 59.304301 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 40.0, "trend_reference": 62.73, "distance_from_trend": -0.362347, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 86.483951, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.537486, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -62.550755, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.416058, "excess_performance": -0.85743, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.362347, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118961, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.537486, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.260833, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.625508, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138669, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.416058, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.655536, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 260206, "relative_activity": 0.750087, "balance": 0.655536, "dry_up": 0.365188, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134519, "annualized_volatility": 0.644502, "from_high_reference": -0.620853, "from_low_reference": 0.032258 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 62.73, "fair_value_reference": 86.483951, "structural_low": 38.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.111111, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2025-01-17", "close": 120.5, "volume": 4571676, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-24", "close": 132.0, "volume": 3328353, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-07", "close": 118.0, 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"typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.5, "volume": 94613, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.0, "volume": 45611, "typical_volume": 404168.35, "trend": 63.903333, "fair_value": 87.065, "relative_strength": -57.427092, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.71836, "energy": 93.276833, "activity_lines": [ 48.166667, 53.365454, 58.853333, 60.846451 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 40.0, "volume": 260206, "typical_volume": 346901.0, "trend": 62.73, "fair_value": 86.483951, "relative_strength": -62.550755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.852734, "energy": 95.094313, "activity_lines": [ 44.58, 50.276364, 56.719524, 59.304301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }