{ "ticker": { "uuid": "21f58bf2-7fb7-41d8-9e99-bfd7fc18312e", "symbol": "VRLA", "name": "Verallia Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Anonyme", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.179, "architecture_energy": 31.888, "architecture_maturity": 37.797, "architecture_confidence": 77.361, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.16, "rotation_up": 24.37, "upward_expansion": 21.57, "deceleration": 45.96, "rotation_down": 60.46, "downward_expansion": 42.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.856667, 19.241091, 19.42108, 19.193093 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 18.6, "trend_reference": 19.273977, "distance_from_trend": -0.034968, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.090486, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.258683, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.374615, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.164657, "excess_performance": -0.338904, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034968, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043578, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.258683, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0202, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.273746, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008327, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.164657, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.07428, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.07428, "dry_up": 2.616723, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044541, "annualized_volatility": 0.367713, "from_high_reference": -0.323522, "from_low_reference": 0.254085 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.273977, "fair_value_reference": 25.090486, "structural_low": 14.831527, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.0132, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.040329, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.178676, "worst_return": -0.126027, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.026288, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.100234, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.125909, "worst_return": -0.092055, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.124224, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.202867, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.082261, "worst_return": -0.166187, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.101931, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.39046, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.058198, "worst_return": -0.262061, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043327, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050661, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041351, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078512, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.024024, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.091743, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015721, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00616, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.010723, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", 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"trend": 19.650331, "fair_value": 25.447277, "relative_strength": -23.321853, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.565305, "energy": 14.37472, "activity_lines": [ 19.867333, 19.888545, 19.408485, 19.349658 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.08, "volume": 781, "typical_volume": 362.45, "trend": 19.605977, "fair_value": 25.383301, "relative_strength": -21.598795, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.643075, "energy": 21.755872, "activity_lines": [ 19.959333, 19.92, 19.532415, 19.377378 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.83, "volume": 1590, "typical_volume": 441.95, "trend": 19.516786, "fair_value": 25.291479, "relative_strength": -26.476858, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.261272, "energy": 12.086559, "activity_lines": [ 19.646667, 19.718727, 19.529282, 19.327315 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.23, "volume": 1328, "typical_volume": 486.25, "trend": 19.393652, "fair_value": 25.189309, "relative_strength": -27.719017, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.448387, "energy": 21.482327, "activity_lines": [ 19.174, 19.429455, 19.461602, 19.244297 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.6, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 353.4, "trend": 19.273977, "fair_value": 25.090486, "relative_strength": -27.374615, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.178598, "energy": 31.888117, "activity_lines": [ 18.856667, 19.241091, 19.42108, 19.193093 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }