{ "ticker": { "uuid": "220913c1-48ea-4366-88ad-d0dac52e2f88", "symbol": "ZAL", "name": "Zalando SE", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 92.596, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.154, "architecture_energy": 51.334, "architecture_maturity": 30.163, "architecture_confidence": 69.191, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.69, "rotation_up": 62.35, "upward_expansion": 83.32, "deceleration": 64.25, "rotation_down": 19.33, "downward_expansion": 7.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.88, 26.586545, 25.001452, 24.077129 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 24.879999, "trend_reference": 23.270333, "distance_from_trend": 0.069172, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.55609, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.026455, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.397818, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.168075, "excess_performance": -0.006172, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069172, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034574, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.026455, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.200469, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.153978, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.169313, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.168075, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.642673, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9371, "relative_activity": 4.540983, "balance": 1.642673, "dry_up": 1.545441, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080309, "annualized_volatility": 0.457371, "from_high_reference": -0.182923, "from_low_reference": 0.330481 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.270333, "fair_value_reference": 25.55609, "structural_low": 18.700001, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.087961, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": -0.004928, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.306214, "worst_return": -0.157467, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.008904, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.159146, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.15761, "worst_return": -0.238722, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.048055, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.076753, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.144433, "worst_return": -0.340934, "sufficient": false }, { 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"close": 27.73, "volume": 3295, "typical_volume": 2047.8, "trend": 23.073667, "fair_value": 25.620128, "relative_strength": -3.181349, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.654929, "energy": 91.33264, "activity_lines": [ 26.777333, 25.644454, 23.964833, 23.347882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.41, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 1937.65, "trend": 23.143333, "fair_value": 25.595064, "relative_strength": -4.946316, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.216418, "energy": 87.950249, "activity_lines": [ 27.196, 26.188909, 24.386119, 23.627645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.5, "volume": 90, "typical_volume": 1705.45, "trend": 23.269667, "fair_value": 25.579295, "relative_strength": -0.666972, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.799211, "energy": 87.51072, "activity_lines": [ 27.764667, 26.785091, 24.877738, 23.973236 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.879999, "volume": 9371, "typical_volume": 2063.65, "trend": 23.270333, "fair_value": 25.55609, "relative_strength": -15.397818, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.153999, "energy": 51.333964, "activity_lines": [ 26.88, 26.586545, 25.001452, 24.077129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }