{ "ticker": { "uuid": "220e68f2-ceee-4c3b-86b2-c163d5d889fc", "symbol": "MPCES", "name": "MPC Energy Solutions N.V.", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 49.793, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.194, "architecture_energy": 15.904, "architecture_maturity": 56.811, "architecture_confidence": 81.144, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.6, "rotation_up": 30.38, "upward_expansion": 57.74, "deceleration": 84.77, "rotation_down": 29.44, "downward_expansion": 19.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.67, 13.771818, 13.695952, 13.588925 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.65, "trend_reference": 13.498333, "distance_from_trend": 0.011236, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.183269, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.220573, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.850047, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.017986, "excess_performance": -0.142979, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011236, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028575, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.220573, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030974, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.0085, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00944, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.017986, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.852842, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 152393, "relative_activity": 1.455423, "balance": 0.852842, "dry_up": 2.296906, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041984, "annualized_volatility": 0.171967, "from_high_reference": -0.065068, "from_low_reference": 0.613475 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.498333, "fair_value_reference": 11.183269, "structural_low": 12.75, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.003597, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.027707, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.083682, "worst_return": -0.051643, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.02826, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.088057, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.054852, "worst_return": -0.160976, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.05283, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.002536, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.292683, "worst_return": 0.050633, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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13.92, 13.672857, 13.568602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.95, "volume": 317869, "typical_volume": 81875.35, "trend": 13.488333, "fair_value": 11.155064, "relative_strength": 2.393831, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.864333, "energy": 42.798756, "activity_lines": [ 14.016667, 13.932727, 13.717857, 13.599892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.15, "volume": 391949, "typical_volume": 99465.4, "trend": 13.481667, "fair_value": 11.166282, "relative_strength": -3.993164, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.298918, "energy": 11.833583, "activity_lines": [ 13.733333, 13.799091, 13.683333, 13.578065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.65, "volume": 152393, "typical_volume": 104707.05, "trend": 13.498333, "fair_value": 11.183269, "relative_strength": -0.850047, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.194014, "energy": 15.903839, "activity_lines": [ 13.67, 13.771818, 13.695952, 13.588925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }