{ "ticker": { "uuid": "220eb462-e7cf-458d-90b8-7b61c6530a6d", "symbol": "BYI", "name": "Phillip SGX APAC Dividend Leaders REIT ETF", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 56.639, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 26.166, "architecture_energy": 28.173, "architecture_maturity": 9.966, "architecture_confidence": 55.909, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.73, "rotation_up": 60.25, "upward_expansion": 35.65, "deceleration": 37.06, "rotation_down": 17.71, "downward_expansion": 21.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.881533, 0.87298, 0.869658, 0.870986 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.891, "trend_reference": 0.879254, "distance_from_trend": 0.013359, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.800369, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.113237, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.78226, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.050107, "excess_performance": -0.204942, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013359, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009558, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.113237, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001668, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.157823, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068048, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.050107, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.587874, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23000, "relative_activity": 1.008553, "balance": 0.587874, "dry_up": 1.427322, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023055, "annualized_volatility": 0.147327, "from_high_reference": -0.065058, "from_low_reference": 0.142308 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.879254, "fair_value_reference": 0.800369, "structural_low": 0.78, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.003313, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012214, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.07888, "worst_return": -0.052438, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.017338, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.052102, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.132944, "worst_return": -0.054589, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.034608, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.074248, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.191741, "worst_return": -0.208007, "sufficient": true 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"relative_strength": -16.793547, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.812532, "energy": 15.049545, "activity_lines": [ 0.865696, 0.863512, 0.864416, 0.869803 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.888, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 22247.25, "trend": 0.879921, "fair_value": 0.799292, "relative_strength": -15.432021, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.648799, "energy": 12.447146, "activity_lines": [ 0.873771, 0.8681, 0.866942, 0.870271 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.891, "volume": 23000, "typical_volume": 22804.95, "trend": 0.879254, "fair_value": 0.800369, "relative_strength": -15.78226, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.165563, "energy": 28.173245, "activity_lines": [ 0.881533, 0.87298, 0.869658, 0.870986 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }