{ "ticker": { "uuid": "220f2749-402f-4f64-86ea-e48f815b0871", "symbol": "HYTR", "name": "COUNTERPOINT HIGH YIELD TREND ETF", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 30.466, "architecture_energy": 13.395, "architecture_maturity": 34.737, "architecture_confidence": 57.503, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.61, "rotation_up": 38.76, "upward_expansion": 37.48, "deceleration": 57.91, "rotation_down": 35.21, "downward_expansion": 20.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.269536, 21.266865, 21.258424, 21.242657 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 21.36, "trend_reference": 21.249678, "distance_from_trend": 0.005192, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.962366, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.070013, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.108064, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.000972, "excess_performance": -0.126597, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005192, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001978, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.070013, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011931, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101081, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003393, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000972, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.188019, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 214923, "relative_activity": 0.669256, "balance": 1.188019, "dry_up": 1.119426, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005999, "annualized_volatility": 0.031447, "from_high_reference": -0.004241, "from_low_reference": 0.035248 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.249678, "fair_value_reference": 19.962366, "structural_low": 20.943538, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.001206, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.00585, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.038582, "worst_return": -0.031128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.007182, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.041679, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.054238, "worst_return": -0.060899, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.019353, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.060594, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.072946, "worst_return": -0.068586, 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false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.05938, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014286, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00443, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007655, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005912, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.2953, "volume": 318510, "typical_volume": 309647.45, "trend": 21.253294, "fair_value": 19.89814, "relative_strength": -7.594771, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.952312, "energy": 19.025047, "activity_lines": [ 21.286669, 21.274183, 21.246769, 21.243497 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.155, "volume": 498562, "typical_volume": 320361.45, "trend": 21.250495, "fair_value": 19.91873, "relative_strength": -7.426394, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.907214, "energy": 5.022307, "activity_lines": [ 21.245196, 21.255315, 21.242101, 21.237155 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.225, "volume": 405962, "typical_volume": 325802.75, "trend": 21.24923, "fair_value": 19.940198, "relative_strength": -7.83724, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.331411, "energy": 10.01918, "activity_lines": [ 21.234321, 21.248696, 21.244245, 21.235511 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.36, "volume": 214923, "typical_volume": 321137.05, "trend": 21.249678, "fair_value": 19.962366, "relative_strength": -10.108064, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.466239, "energy": 13.394983, "activity_lines": [ 21.269536, 21.266865, 21.258424, 21.242657 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }